Louisville @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

3-0 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

2-1 · Power #35

final

Closing spread

LOU -3.5

✓ LOU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 31–27 PITT

✓ LOU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -3.5

CloseLOU -3.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -3.5

no move

CloseLOU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -3.5 · unchangedmodel LOU -5

model LOU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (161 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -3.5

CloseLOU -3.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 3.5-point road favorite at PITT, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 34–27; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 3.9; 52.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	ARK @ MEM 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7	31–32	L	O59.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Close	TENN @ UK 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	33–27	W	O50.5
Close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Close	KSU @ COLO 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	31–28	L	O55
Close	LSU @ ARK 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	34–10	W	U57
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	31–21	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU LLL	0-3	0%	—	0-3
PITT WWL	2-1	67%	2-0	—

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
PITT OOO	3-0	100%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 493 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
PITT	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LOU 1–1 PITT Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · LOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Pittsburgh 9 @ Louisville 37	LOU -7.5	LOU W
Oct 14 2023	Louisville 21 @ Pittsburgh 38	LOU -7.5	PITT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+11.2 →+10.0▼ 1.2#31

PITT+2.5 →+3.1▲ 0.6#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LOU

Longer bar = better

PITT

#38

Offense

Even

#33

#20

Defense

Even

#25

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

PITT better ▶

0.0 #74

61 plays #121

Pace

PITT faster ▶

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #29	19.0 #44	Even
Yards / play	6.84 #28	3.98 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #46	−0.01 #33	Even
Success rate	46% #49	30% #9	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #17	16.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #37	4.06 #16	LOU
PPA / play	+0.27 #31	−0.11 #14	Even
Success rate	46% #47	34% #21	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	9.3 #27	13.3 #26	22.7 #24	8.0 #45	9.0 #41	17.0 #35
PITT allowed	0.0 #1	7.7 #80	7.7 #31	4.7 #68	4.3 #44	9.0 #41

PITT scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	7.0 #61	13.3 #26	20.3 #35	10.7 #9	12.3 #6	23.0 #6
LOU allowed	3.3 #50	2.3 #15	5.7 #17	2.3 #23	8.0 #97	10.3 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.