Stanford @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Stanford

2-3 · Power #85

final

Final

SMU

3-2 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -19.5

✓ SMU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 17–36 SMU

✓ SMU (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -17.5

CloseSMU -19.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -17.5

2 → SMU

CloseSMU -19.5

2 pts toward SMU

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -17.5 · closed SMU -19.5 · moved 2 toward SMUmodel SMU -19.5 matches the line

model SMU -19.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 49% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (182 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -17.5

CloseSMU -19.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 19.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24 against an average line of 19.6; 57.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	ORST vs STAN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-21.5	62–17	W	O52.5
Close	UNLV vs SDSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & team ratings	-21.5	41–20	L	O55
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Close	WSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-18.5	14–15	L	U55
Close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Close	HOU vs TEM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-20	43–36	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-3	1-3
SMU LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-3	0-4

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UUOOO	3-2	60%	2-3
SMU UOUUU	1-4	20%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
SMU	6-4 60%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

STAN 0–1 SMU SMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	SMU 40 @ Stanford 10	SMU -16.5	SMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−3.7 →−7.4▼ 3.7#92

SMU+12.5 →+6.6▼ 5.9#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

STAN

Longer bar = better

SMU

#105

Offense

SMU better ▶

#49

#114

Defense

SMU better ▶

#59

−0.2 #82

Turnovers

SMU better ▶

+0.6 #41

63 plays #112

Pace

SMU faster ▶

66 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	STAN off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #111	24.8 #75	SMU
Yards / play	5.20 #107	5.58 #79	SMU
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	−0.01 #28	SMU
Success rate	37% #127	40% #54	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #44	29.4 #105	SMU
Yards / play	6.28 #43	6.21 #120	SMU
PPA / play	+0.19 #47	+0.20 #112	SMU
Success rate	44% #62	46% #119	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	6.0 #75	6.2 #106	12.2 #101	2.6 #126	5.8 #91	8.4 #121
SMU allowed	3.4 #38	6.8 #59	10.2 #47	2.0 #12	10.6 #132	12.6 #87

SMU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	6.0 #75	12.6 #28	18.6 #37	4.2 #100	9.8 #22	14.0 #59
STAN allowed	8.8 #121	10.4 #116	19.2 #127	4.6 #61	5.6 #55	10.2 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.