UCLA @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

1-4 · Power #70

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

3-2 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

MSU -6.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 21–28 MSU

✗ MSU (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -7.5

CloseMSU -6.5

Total55.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -7.5

1 → UCLA

CloseMSU -6.5

1 pt toward UCLA

Total

Open55.5

▼ 4

Close51.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -7.5 · closed MSU -6.5 · moved 1 toward UCLAmodel MSU -8

model MSU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (186 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -7.5

CloseMSU -6.5

Total55.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSU as a 6.5-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 38–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 6.1; 50.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	NCSU vs WAKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	30–34	L	O52.5
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Very close	CSU vs WSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	3–20	L	U48.5
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	27–20	W	O46
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Close	ARMY vs GAST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	14–31	L	U54
Close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-1
MSU LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; MSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA OUUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
MSU UOOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UCLA 4–3 MSU UCLA leads · 7 games since 1953 · UCLA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+5.3 →−2.5▼ 7.8#76

MSU+0.3 →+0.8▲ 0.5#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UCLA

Longer bar = better

MSU

#81

Offense

Even

#83

#128

Defense

MSU better ▶

#104

−0.2 #92

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #99

62 plays #117

Pace

Even

63 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #115	30.6 #116	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #84	5.82 #99	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	+0.15 #95	Even
Success rate	46% #44	45% #106	UCLA

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MSU offense

	MSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #50	32.4 #125	MSU
Yards / play	5.48 #88	6.27 #122	MSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #97	+0.26 #129	MSU
Success rate	41% #97	53% #137	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	2.0 #130	7.4 #91	9.4 #119	5.2 #88	5.2 #98	10.4 #99
MSU allowed	5.4 #80	8.4 #94	13.8 #89	4.8 #68	9.4 #128	14.2 #110

MSU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.6 #82	8.2 #80	13.8 #80	10.8 #5	5.2 #98	16.0 #34
UCLA allowed	8.0 #118	8.8 #101	16.8 #111	4.2 #50	11.4 #133	15.6 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.