Wyoming @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F22 mphgusts 36DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wyoming

3-3 · Power #107

final

Final

Air Force

1-5 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

AFA -3.5

✓ WYO W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 22–26 AFA

✓ AFA (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -5.5

CloseAFA -3.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -5.5

2 → WYO

CloseAFA -3.5

2 pts toward Wyoming

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -5.5 · closed AFA -3.5 · moved 2 toward WYOmodel AFA -4.5

model AFA -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (254 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (167 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -5.5

CloseAFA -3.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 3.5-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 3.9; 49.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	28–21	W	U51.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	26–18	W	U55.5
Close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-5	29–38	L	O54.5
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	48–26	W	O55
Close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Close	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-3	15–14	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO WLLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	1-3
AFA LLLWW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO UUOUO	2-4	33%	3-3
AFA OOOOO	6-0	100%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYO	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
AFA	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WYO 28–32 AFA (3 tied) AFA leads · 63 games since 1957 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Air Force 19 @ Wyoming 31	AFA -4.5	WYO W
Oct 14 2023	Wyoming 27 @ Air Force 34	AFA -12.5	WYO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−11.9 →−9.6▲ 2.3#107

AFA−8.0 →−7.5▲ 0.5#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WYO

Longer bar = better

AFA

#109

Offense

AFA better ▶

#13

#50

Defense

◀ WYO better

#135

−0.3 #96

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #107

67 plays #70

Pace

AFA faster ▶

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: WYO offense

	WYO off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #117	40.0 #135	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #94	8.08 #137	WYO
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	+0.48 #137	WYO
Success rate	40% #108	48% #131	WYO

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #18	22.3 #57	AFA
Yards / play	7.11 #13	5.03 #39	AFA
PPA / play	+0.34 #9	+0.05 #49	AFA
Success rate	52% #11	41% #56	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	2.8 #128	3.8 #129	6.7 #130	4.0 #104	9.2 #28	13.2 #66
AFA allowed	7.5 #116	7.3 #75	14.8 #99	11.3 #134	13.8 #136	25.2 #136

AFA scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.0 #52	8.0 #81	15.0 #68	8.5 #28	14.8 #1	23.3 #2
WYO allowed	5.7 #79	8.2 #90	13.8 #84	3.5 #36	5.0 #38	8.5 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.