San José State @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Fri, Oct 17, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

San José State

2-4 · Power #106

final

Final

Utah State

3-3 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -3.5

✓ USU W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 30–34 USU

✓ USU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -3.5

CloseUSU -3.5

Total64.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSU -3.5

no move

CloseUSU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open64.5

▼ 2

Close62.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USU -3.5 · unchangedmodel USU -6

model USU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (248 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -3.5

CloseUSU -3.5

Total64.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 3.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 30–25; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.1 against an average line of 5.4; 57.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GASO vs APP 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	29–20	W	U60.5
Very close	UNT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	52–20	W	O65.5
Very close	UNLV vs CSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	25–23	L	U60
Very close	JXST vs WKU 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	52–12	W	O58.5
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	42–21	W	U65
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Very close	USU vs SDSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	41–20	W	O60
Very close	FAU vs UAB 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	53–33	W	O66

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-0
USU WWWWL	5-1	83%	3-0	2-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; USU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4
USU OOUOO	4-2	67%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 46% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
USU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SJSU 1–0 USU SJSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SJSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Utah State 21 @ San José State 42	SJSU -4	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−6.2 →−7.4▼ 1.2#95

USU−10.4 →−7.2▲ 3.2#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

SJSU

Longer bar = better

USU

#70

Offense

USU better ▶

#43

#108

Defense

Even

#115

−0.2 #81

Turnovers

USU better ▶

+0.2 #64

68 plays #45

Pace

◀ SJSU faster

65 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #95	32.7 #126	SJSU
Yards / play	6.01 #52	5.79 #99	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	+0.19 #115	SJSU
Success rate	44% #58	46% #120	SJSU

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #35	29.2 #105	USU
Yards / play	6.56 #29	6.22 #120	USU
PPA / play	+0.21 #37	+0.18 #110	USU
Success rate	43% #70	43% #97	USU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	5.2 #84	11.0 #35	16.2 #58	4.7 #92	3.2 #125	7.8 #124
USU allowed	5.7 #78	13.0 #135	18.7 #125	5.5 #78	8.5 #115	14.0 #107

USU scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	7.7 #41	11.5 #27	19.2 #30	9.5 #15	6.0 #81	15.5 #37
SJSU allowed	7.5 #112	9.2 #105	16.7 #115	2.8 #20	9.7 #130	12.5 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.