Utah State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F2 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

4-3 · Power #86

final

Final

New Mexico

4-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNM -2.5

✓ UNM W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 30–32 UNM

✓ UNM (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -1.5

CloseUNM -2.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -1.5

1 → UNM

CloseUNM -2.5

1 pt toward New Mexico

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -1.5 · closed UNM -2.5 · moved 1 toward UNMmodel UNM -3

model UNM -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (267 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (211 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -1.5

CloseUNM -2.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 2.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 33–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 3.3; 54.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GASO vs APP 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	29–20	W	U60.5
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	42–21	W	U65
Very close	ODU vs GASO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	23–28	L	U66
Very close	USM vs JXST 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	42–25	W	O55.5
Very close	LT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–23	L	U56.5
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	JXST vs WKU 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	52–12	W	O58.5
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WWWLW	6-1	86%	2-1	3-0
UNM WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OUOOU	4-3	57%	4-3
UNM UOOOU	4-3	57%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	6-4 60%	9-1 90%	7-3 70%
UNM	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USU 17–15 UNM USU leads · 32 games since 1951 · UNM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	New Mexico 50 @ Utah State 45	UNM -0.5	UNM W
Nov 24 2023	Utah State 44 @ New Mexico 41	USU -5	UNM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−10.4 →−6.9▲ 3.5#93

UNM−13.7 →−6.6▲ 7.1#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

USU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#47

Offense

◀ USU better

#84

#117

Defense

UNM better ▶

#82

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

◀ USU better

−1.7 #137

65 plays #90

Pace

Even

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #38	26.3 #86	USU
Yards / play	6.56 #28	5.58 #77	USU
PPA / play	+0.21 #37	+0.13 #86	USU
Success rate	42% #83	42% #78	Even

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	28.4 #73	31.6 #120	UNM
Yards / play	5.65 #76	5.96 #112	UNM
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	+0.20 #117	Even
Success rate	42% #82	46% #120	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	7.6 #41	10.3 #38	17.9 #37	10.1 #8	6.0 #82	16.1 #31
UNM allowed	5.9 #81	9.6 #107	15.4 #103	5.1 #68	5.7 #55	10.9 #55

UNM scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.0 #113	9.9 #47	13.9 #80	4.7 #99	9.9 #17	14.6 #46
USU allowed	5.3 #69	12.0 #132	17.3 #121	6.1 #93	8.1 #110	14.3 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.