San Diego State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

5-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

Fresno State

5-2 · Power #82

final

Closing spread

SDSU -3.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 24–21 FRES

✓ SDSU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -2.5

CloseSDSU -3.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -2.5

1 → SDSU

CloseSDSU -3.5

1 pt toward San Diego State

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -2.5 · closed SDSU -3.5 · moved 1 toward SDSUmodel SDSU -2.5

model SDSU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (193 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (93 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -2.5

CloseSDSU -3.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 3.5-point road favorite at FRES, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 23–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 3.9; 43.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-6	19–24	L	P43
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	13–3	W	U43.5
Close	SJSU @ FRES 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7	10–17	L	U47
Close	LT @ UTEP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	30–11	W	U48
Close	VT @ DUKE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	UNLV @ WYO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	31–17	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-1	3-0
FRES WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as favorite; FRES home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OUUOO	3-3	50%	5-1
FRES OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%
FRES	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SDSU 20–13 FRES SDSU leads · 33 games since 1969 · SDSU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Fresno State 18 @ San Diego State 33	FRES -4.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−12.0 →−1.5▲ 10.5#71

FRES−4.5 →−6.0▼ 1.5#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SDSU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#59

Offense

Even

#60

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#70

+0.7 #30

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−0.4 #105

65 plays #97

Pace

Even

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #55	23.7 #65	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #71	5.24 #49	FRES
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.14 #98	SDSU
Success rate	45% #54	41% #67	Even

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	FRES off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #66	12.2 #5	SDSU
Yards / play	5.96 #53	4.02 #4	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #85	−0.11 #4	SDSU
Success rate	46% #37	31% #3	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	7.0 #51	10.7 #36	17.7 #40	7.8 #36	5.2 #101	13.0 #68
FRES allowed	6.3 #93	9.0 #99	15.3 #102	3.7 #36	4.7 #33	8.4 #23

FRES scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	5.4 #79	11.1 #29	16.6 #49	5.0 #87	7.7 #55	12.7 #73
SDSU allowed	1.7 #6	3.7 #9	5.3 #5	1.7 #6	5.2 #42	6.8 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.