Nevada @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 9:45 PM EDTWeek 8 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Nevada

1-5 · Power #121

final

Final

New Mexico

3-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNM -14.5

✓ NEV W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 19–33 UNM

✓ UNM (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -10.5

CloseUNM -14.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -10.5

4 → UNM

CloseUNM -14.5

4 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -10.5 · closed UNM -14.5 · moved 4 toward UNMmodel UNM -15

model UNM -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 55% (112 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (135 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -10.5

CloseUNM -14.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 14.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 24–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.8 against an average line of 15.1; 50 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Very close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13	24–14	L	U53
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	CONN vs TEM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	29–20	L	P49
Close	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Close	TROY vs USM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	52–20	W	O49
Close	OHIO vs BALL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest	-17.5	42–21	W	O51.5
Close	MSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-14	24–17	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LLLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	2-2
UNM LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UUUUO	2-4	33%	1-5
UNM UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
UNM	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEV 1–0 UNM NEV leads · 1 game since 2023 · NEV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	New Mexico 24 @ Nevada 34	Pick’em	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−9.7 →−17.0▼ 7.3#128

UNM−13.7 →−6.6▲ 7.1#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NEV

Longer bar = better

UNM

#129

Offense

UNM better ▶

#78

#107

Defense

UNM better ▶

#90

−1.8 #137

Turnovers

Even

−1.7 #135

62 plays #125

Pace

UNM faster ▶

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	NEV off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #134	27.0 #90	UNM
Yards / play	4.99 #116	5.73 #90	UNM
PPA / play	−0.13 #136	+0.14 #95	UNM
Success rate	35% #131	43% #83	UNM

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #68	28.7 #101	UNM
Yards / play	5.68 #74	5.77 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #99	+0.19 #110	Even
Success rate	43% #69	47% #126	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	1.0 #136	6.0 #108	7.0 #129	1.7 #135	5.8 #86	7.5 #127
UNM allowed	6.3 #97	9.7 #108	16.0 #109	4.8 #60	6.2 #57	11.0 #58

UNM scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	3.5 #120	10.3 #41	13.8 #82	3.8 #115	11.5 #5	15.3 #42
NEV allowed	5.7 #78	11.3 #128	17.0 #118	4.7 #57	7.0 #81	11.7 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.