Hawai'i @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

6-2 · Power #90

final

Final

San José State

2-5 · Power #106

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -2.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 26–29 SJSU

✓ SJSU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2.5

CloseSJSU -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -2.5

no move

CloseSJSU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel SJSU -5.5

model SJSU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (282 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2.5

CloseSJSU -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 45–38; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.9 against an average line of 4.5; 46.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	10–42	L	U56.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	ORST vs SJSU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	13–24	L	U58.5
Very close	FAU vs RICE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	17–14	L	U54.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	BOIS vs WYO 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	32–7	W	U48.5
Very close	GASO vs TROY 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	20–28	L	U53.5
Very close	GT vs BC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	23–38	L	O57
Very close	ULM vs TXST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	31–30	L	O52.5
Close	WMU vs EMU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	26–18	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW LWWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	4-1
SJSU LWWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UUOOU	3-5	38%	6-2
SJSU OOOOU	4-3	57%	2-5

Went over in Q3. Of 510 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
SJSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HAW 0–1 SJSU SJSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SJSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	San José State 35 @ Hawai'i 0	SJSU -10.5	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−11.4 →−7.7▲ 3.7#95

SJSU−6.2 →−6.5▼ 0.3#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

HAW

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#88

Offense

SJSU better ▶

#58

#56

Defense

◀ HAW better

#104

−0.8 #120

Turnovers

SJSU better ▶

−0.3 #96

74 plays #8

Pace

◀ HAW faster

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #70	29.3 #100	HAW
Yards / play	5.40 #92	6.28 #124	HAW
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.18 #108	Even
Success rate	40% #100	43% #82	Even

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #92	23.3 #60	HAW
Yards / play	6.15 #36	5.35 #63	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.15 #58	+0.07 #53	Even
Success rate	45% #47	40% #46	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	6.0 #71	8.4 #74	14.4 #71	4.4 #105	9.9 #17	14.3 #49
SJSU allowed	7.4 #110	8.3 #89	15.7 #102	4.4 #48	9.1 #126	13.6 #103

SJSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	4.9 #97	10.3 #38	15.1 #66	5.4 #84	3.6 #124	9.0 #118
HAW allowed	4.6 #51	5.0 #21	9.6 #33	5.4 #67	8.3 #114	13.6 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.