Army @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Air Force

Weather at kickoff40°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Army

3-4 · Power #83

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

2-5 · Power #95

final

Closing spread

ARMY -1.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 28–28 AFA

✓ ARMY (51%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -1.5

CloseARMY -1.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -1.5

no move

CloseARMY -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -1.5 · unchangedmodel AFA -3.5

model AFA -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (148 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -1.5

CloseARMY -1.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 1.5-point road favorite at AFA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARMY won 20–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 2.9; 47.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	42–28	W	O52
Close	LIB @ UTEP 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	19–8	W	U46.5
Close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Close	OHIO @ CMU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	27–25	L	O50.5
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-2	38–21	W	O45.5
Close	NAVY @ CLT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3	14–0	W	U44.5
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY LLWLW	3-4	43%	3-1	1-2
AFA LLWWL	3-4	43%	1-3	2-1

Venue/role: ARMY away, as favorite; AFA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY OUUUU	2-5	29%	3-4
AFA OOOOU	6-1	86%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
AFA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARMY 21–38 AFA (1 tied) AFA leads · 60 games since 1959 · ARMY has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Air Force 3 @ Army 20	ARMY -18.5	AFA W
Nov 4 2023	Army 23 @ Air Force 3	AFA -18.5	ARMY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−9.7 →−4.4▲ 5.3#82

AFA−8.0 →−8.0–#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ARMY

Longer bar = better

AFA

#98

Offense

AFA better ▶

#14

#81

Defense

◀ ARMY better

#135

0.0 #74

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #86

74 plays #6

Pace

◀ ARMY faster

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #97	37.3 #133	ARMY
Yards / play	4.86 #125	7.79 #137	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	+0.45 #137	ARMY
Success rate	43% #69	50% #133	ARMY

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #22	24.0 #67	AFA
Yards / play	6.91 #15	5.57 #74	AFA
PPA / play	+0.32 #8	+0.11 #77	AFA
Success rate	51% #12	44% #105	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	3.0 #124	6.7 #100	9.7 #115	6.9 #56	6.9 #71	13.7 #60
AFA allowed	7.4 #109	6.3 #50	13.7 #80	10.7 #133	12.9 #136	23.6 #136

AFA scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	6.4 #65	7.3 #90	13.7 #82	8.4 #26	14.1 #1	22.6 #2
ARMY allowed	6.9 #100	4.9 #20	11.7 #60	3.6 #33	6.9 #77	10.4 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.