Stanford @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F8 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Stanford

3-4 · Power #85

final

Final

Miami

5-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -28.5

✓ MIA W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 9–38 MIA

✓ MIA (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -29.5

CloseMIA -28.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -29.5

1 → STAN

CloseMIA -28.5

1 pt toward Stanford

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -29.5 · closed MIA -28.5 · moved 1 toward STANmodel MIA -32

model MIA -32

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 59% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (250 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -29.5

CloseMIA -28.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 28.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 42–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 28.4 against an average line of 27.8; 45.4 points a game (usually 56.4). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Very close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	IU vs MSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-26.5	38–13	L	O49.5
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-31	33–24	L	O45
Close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Close	OSU vs OHIO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-28.5	37–9	L	U49.5
Close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	MICH vs CMU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-27.5	63–3	W	O42.5
Close	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-25	44–6	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WLLLW	2-5	29%	0-4	2-4
MIA LWWWL	4-2	67%	3-2	3-2

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OOOUU	3-4	43%	3-4
MIA UOUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 401 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MIA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

STAN 0–2 MIA MIA leads · 2 games since 2025 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−3.7 →−6.0▼ 2.3#87

MIA+18.0 →+19.4▲ 1.4#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

STAN

Longer bar = better

MIA

#114

Offense

MIA better ▶

#35

#110

Defense

MIA better ▶

#15

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.5 #41

65 plays #89

Pace

Even

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	STAN off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #122	15.3 #13	MIA
Yards / play	5.01 #115	4.60 #18	MIA
PPA / play	+0.09 #96	−0.05 #12	MIA
Success rate	38% #123	37% #18	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #45	27.7 #95	MIA
Yards / play	6.25 #43	6.19 #118	MIA
PPA / play	+0.22 #32	+0.20 #115	MIA
Success rate	49% #19	45% #113	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.7 #99	6.9 #97	11.6 #104	3.3 #124	4.1 #118	7.4 #131
MIA allowed	3.3 #31	2.2 #3	5.5 #6	1.7 #8	8.2 #112	9.8 #38

MIA scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	8.2 #30	9.7 #52	17.8 #36	6.3 #64	8.5 #41	14.8 #46
STAN allowed	7.3 #106	10.3 #118	17.6 #122	4.3 #46	5.9 #56	10.1 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.