Miami @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami

6-1 · Power #6

final

Final

SMU

5-3 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -6.5

✓ SMU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 30–22 SMU

✗ MIA (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -10.5

CloseMIA -6.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -10.5

4 → SMU

CloseMIA -6.5

4 pts toward SMU

Total

Open50.5

▼ 4

Close46.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -10.5 · closed MIA -6.5 · moved 4 toward SMUmodel MIA -11.5

model MIA -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (150 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -10.5

CloseMIA -6.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 6.5-point road favorite at SMU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 26–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 6.6; 51.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU @ FLA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–15	W	U48.5
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	26–20	W	O45.5
Close	CLEM @ MIA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-6	20–28	L	O45
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Close	UGA @ AUB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	20–10	W	U46.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	USC @ MINN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	17–24	L	U45.5
Close	TENN @ VAN 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	36–23	W	O47
Loose	TEX @ FLA 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-4.5	21–29	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WWWLW	5-2	71%	1-0	4-2
SMU LLWWL	2-6	25%	1-3	1-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; SMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUUO	3-4	43%	6-1
SMU UUUOU	2-6	25%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SMU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 0–2 SMU SMU leads · 2 games since 1965 · SMU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+18.0 →+19.9▲ 1.9#8

SMU+12.5 →+6.5▼ 6.0#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MIA

Longer bar = better

SMU

#31

Offense

◀ MIA better

#69

Defense

◀ MIA better

#33

+0.7 #22

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #15

67 plays #61

Pace

◀ MIA faster

65 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #37	21.4 #44	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #43	5.23 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #30	−0.08 #11	Even
Success rate	50% #14	38% #27	Even

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	SMU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #50	14.1 #8	MIA
Yards / play	5.97 #55	4.37 #9	MIA
PPA / play	+0.14 #66	−0.11 #5	MIA
Success rate	40% #104	35% #12	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	7.0 #55	9.3 #58	16.3 #56	8.4 #26	9.3 #25	17.7 #17
SMU allowed	2.5 #18	6.9 #67	9.4 #28	2.9 #22	7.9 #102	10.8 #49

SMU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	5.5 #78	11.0 #32	16.5 #51	5.1 #84	8.9 #32	14.0 #54
MIA allowed	3.9 #39	1.9 #3	5.7 #7	1.4 #6	7.0 #81	8.4 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.