West Virginia @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

2-6 · Power #77

▲ winner

Final

Houston

7-1 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

HOU -12.5

✓ WVU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 18–30 HOU

✗ HOU (81%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -15.5

CloseHOU -12.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -15.5

3 → WVU

CloseHOU -12.5

3 pts toward West Virginia

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -15.5 · closed HOU -12.5 · moved 3 toward WVUmodel HOU -11.5

model HOU -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 53% (95 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (182 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -15.5

CloseHOU -12.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 12.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 45–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Below normal · usually 78%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 12.3; 37.2 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Very close	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-10	24–7	W	U50
Close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Close	JMU vs GASO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-15	35–10	W	U54.5
Close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LLWLW	3-5	38%	1-3	3-3
HOU LLWWW	6-2	75%	3-1	4-1

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UOOOU	4-4	50%	2-6
HOU OUOOU	5-3	63%	7-1

Went over in Q3. Of 546 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
HOU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WVU 0–1 HOU HOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · HOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2023	West Virginia 39 @ Houston 41	WVU -3	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU+0.8 →−3.8▼ 4.6#80

HOU−1.8 →+3.6▲ 5.4#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WVU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#122

Offense

HOU better ▶

#89

#84

Defense

HOU better ▶

#29

0.0 #75

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.6 #32

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ WVU faster

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	WVU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #116	18.6 #22	HOU
Yards / play	4.95 #120	5.00 #32	HOU
PPA / play	−0.03 #130	+0.01 #28	HOU
Success rate	38% #120	39% #34	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #71	29.9 #108	HOU
Yards / play	5.57 #82	5.74 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	+0.11 #78	Even
Success rate	40% #108	41% #58	WVU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	1.8 #133	4.6 #125	6.4 #134	5.1 #84	8.1 #45	13.3 #63
HOU allowed	5.4 #71	4.6 #14	10.0 #40	0.8 #1	7.9 #102	8.6 #21

HOU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.9 #75	8.6 #70	14.5 #72	7.1 #44	6.8 #72	13.9 #55
WVU allowed	7.8 #114	8.9 #98	16.6 #116	7.4 #110	5.9 #56	13.3 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.