Notre Dame @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Boston College

Weather at kickoff53°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Notre Dame

5-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Boston College

1-7 · Power #84

final

Closing spread

ND -30.5

✓ BC W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 42–12 BC

✓ ND (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -29.5

CloseND -30.5

Total58.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -29.5

1 → ND

CloseND -30.5

1 pt toward Notre Dame

Total

Open58.5

▼ 3

Close55.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -29.5 · closed ND -30.5 · moved 1 toward NDmodel ND -29.5

model ND -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (222 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -29.5

CloseND -30.5

Total58.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 30.5-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 25–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 99%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 28.2; 54.3 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA @ VAN 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-32.5	37–20	L	O55
Close	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-26	56–23	W	O50
Close	ALA @ USF 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar season form	-34.25	17–3	L	U60.75
Loose	PSU @ PUR 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-30	49–10	W	O51.5
Loose	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Loose	UGA @ GT 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-24.5	31–23	L	U59.5
Loose	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings	-27	41–13	W	O46
Loose	MIZ @ MASS 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-27	45–3	W	U53.5
Loose	UGA @ MIZ 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar total	-30.75	26–22	L	U54.25
Loose	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-26.5	52–17	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WWLWL	3-4	43%	1-1	3-4
BC LLLLW	3-5	38%	1-3	2-3

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OOUUU	4-3	57%	5-2
BC UOUOO	6-2	75%	1-7

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BC	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+21.6 →+23.8▲ 2.2#4

BC+1.8 →−5.5▼ 7.3#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

◀ ND better

#83

#48

Defense

◀ ND better

#101

+1.1 #6

Turnovers

◀ ND better

−0.6 #116

66 plays #84

Pace

BC faster ▶

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	39.1 #10	34.4 #127	ND
Yards / play	7.05 #11	6.07 #112	ND
PPA / play	+0.26 #20	+0.17 #106	ND
Success rate	50% #15	41% #59	ND

When BC has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	BC off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #76	21.3 #42	ND
Yards / play	5.43 #91	5.37 #61	ND
PPA / play	+0.11 #84	+0.02 #35	ND
Success rate	42% #81	40% #52	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ND scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.9 #20	12.0 #17	20.9 #12	9.9 #8	8.4 #40	18.3 #13
BC allowed	7.1 #105	12.1 #133	19.3 #129	6.5 #98	6.8 #78	13.3 #95

BC scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	5.0 #88	9.9 #44	14.9 #68	4.3 #110	6.0 #83	10.3 #107
ND allowed	3.9 #39	11.1 #126	15.0 #92	3.0 #21	3.3 #10	6.3 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.