Georgia Tech @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F0 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

8-0 · Power #39

final

Final

NC State

4-4 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

GT -4.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 32–27 NCSU

✗ GT (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGT -6.5

CloseGT -4.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGT -6.5

2 → NCSU

CloseGT -4.5

2 pts toward NC State

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GT -6.5 · closed GT -4.5 · moved 2 toward NCSUmodel GT -6

model GT -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (135 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (187 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGT -6.5

CloseGT -4.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GT as a 4.5-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 48–36 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.9; 54.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	GT @ UNC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–34	W	O60.5
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	LSU @ FLA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	16–27	L	U56.5
Very close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Very close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	17–24	L	U52.5
Very close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	COLO @ KU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	21–37	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT LLWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	4-2
NCSU LLWLL	3-5	38%	2-2	0-3

Venue/role: GT away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT OOUUO	4-4	50%	8-0
NCSU OUOUO	5-3	63%	4-4

Went over in Q3. Of 394 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
NCSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GT 1–0 NCSU GT leads · 1 game since 2023 · GT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 21 2024	NC State 29 @ Georgia Tech 30	GT -7.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT+6.9 →+10.3▲ 3.4#28

NCSU+0.7 →+2.5▲ 1.8#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#16

Offense

◀ GT better

#48

#61

Defense

◀ GT better

#86

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

◀ GT better

−0.5 #108

65 plays #95

Pace

Even

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #24	29.9 #107	GT
Yards / play	7.28 #6	5.91 #100	GT
PPA / play	+0.25 #24	+0.19 #115	GT
Success rate	51% #10	37% #21	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #55	20.0 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #29	5.46 #70	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.19 #42	+0.09 #67	NCSU
Success rate	44% #64	41% #72	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GT scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	7.4 #40	8.4 #74	15.8 #59	9.1 #16	10.3 #9	19.4 #7
NCSU allowed	7.8 #115	9.4 #108	17.1 #121	7.1 #105	5.6 #50	12.8 #86

NCSU scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	8.3 #23	10.8 #32	19.0 #25	6.9 #52	4.6 #115	11.5 #87
GT allowed	2.0 #7	6.0 #42	8.0 #15	4.6 #49	6.6 #73	11.3 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.