NC State @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

NC State

5-4 · Power #44

final

Final

Miami

7-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -16.5

✓ MIA W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 19–36 MIA

✓ MIA (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -14.5

CloseMIA -16.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -14.5

2 → MIA

CloseMIA -16.5

2 pts toward Miami

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -14.5 · closed MIA -16.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel MIA -19

model MIA -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 48% (120 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (225 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -14.5

CloseMIA -16.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 16.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.8 against an average line of 16.3; 55.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-14	43–37	L	O56
Close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	53–7	W	O50
Close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5
Close	CLEM vs WAKE 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-21	17–12	L	U53
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LWLLW	4-5	44%	1-3	1-3
MIA WLWLL	5-4	56%	4-3	4-4

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU UOUOO	6-3	67%	5-4
MIA UUOUO	4-5	44%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MIA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NCSU 1–0 MIA NCSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NCSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Miami 6 @ NC State 20	MIA -6.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+0.7 →+3.7▲ 3.0#54

MIA+18.0 →+18.5▲ 0.5#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NCSU

Longer bar = better

MIA

#34

Offense

Even

#35

#97

Defense

MIA better ▶

−0.3 #99

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.8 #19

66 plays #85

Pace

MIA faster ▶

67 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	NCSU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #43	15.0 #10	MIA
Yards / play	6.69 #21	4.47 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #27	−0.10 #5	MIA
Success rate	45% #43	36% #13	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #35	30.6 #112	MIA
Yards / play	6.11 #40	6.15 #119	MIA
PPA / play	+0.18 #42	+0.22 #124	MIA
Success rate	48% #23	39% #33	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	8.9 #16	10.7 #28	19.6 #18	7.7 #31	5.2 #104	12.9 #62
MIA allowed	3.0 #24	2.2 #1	5.2 #5	2.6 #10	6.6 #70	9.1 #27

MIA scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.2 #60	9.1 #59	15.3 #63	9.2 #12	8.3 #36	17.6 #15
NCSU allowed	7.7 #115	9.4 #107	17.1 #124	7.8 #119	5.7 #48	13.4 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.