Virginia @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:35 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

8-2 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Duke

5-4 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

DUKE -5.5

✓ UVA W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 27–32 DUKE

✗ DUKE (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -6.5

CloseDUKE -5.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -6.5

1 → UVA

CloseDUKE -5.5

1 pt toward Virginia

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -6.5 · closed DUKE -5.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel DUKE -2

model DUKE -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 54% (180 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (286 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -6.5

CloseDUKE -5.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 5.5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 34–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 4.1; 55.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	OU vs BAY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	35–38	L	O61.5
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	BAY vs TCU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	37–34	W	O64
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	ARIZ vs COLO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	7–34	L	U57.5
Very close	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	41–20	W	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WLLWL	6-4	60%	2-2	2-1
DUKE WWLWL	4-4	50%	1-2	3-3

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA UUUUU	5-5	50%	8-2
DUKE UOUOO	7-2	78%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
DUKE	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UVA 40–34 DUKE UVA leads · 74 games since 1890 · DUKE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Duke 27 @ Virginia 30	DUKE -3	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−1.6 →+6.4▲ 8.0#48

DUKE+1.9 →+5.7▲ 3.8#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UVA

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#49

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#20

#39

Defense

◀ UVA better

#109

+0.7 #22

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

+0.2 #56

73 plays #15

Pace

◀ UVA faster

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #27	29.1 #100	UVA
Yards / play	5.84 #58	6.14 #118	UVA
PPA / play	+0.16 #46	+0.19 #116	UVA
Success rate	43% #65	44% #101	UVA

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #22	21.6 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.82 #16	5.07 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #22	+0.03 #41	Even
Success rate	48% #19	39% #37	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	9.3 #11	10.4 #34	19.7 #16	7.1 #41	4.5 #120	11.6 #84
DUKE allowed	7.7 #114	8.7 #98	16.3 #112	4.8 #48	8.0 #111	12.8 #86

DUKE scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	6.4 #59	11.0 #24	17.4 #36	8.0 #26	9.8 #14	17.8 #15
UVA allowed	2.8 #19	8.6 #97	11.4 #48	6.1 #91	2.9 #4	9.0 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.