Buffalo @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Wed, Nov 12, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

5-4 · Power #118

final

Final

Central Michigan

5-4 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -2.5

✓ CMU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 21–24 CMU

✓ CMU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -2.5

CloseCMU -2.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCMU -2.5

no move

CloseCMU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CMU -2.5 · unchangedmodel CMU -4.5

model CMU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (294 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -2.5

CloseCMU -2.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 2.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 38–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 3; 42.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO vs M-OH 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Very close	SDSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	27–24	W	O47.5
Very close	BGSU vs BUFF 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	3–28	L	U44.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	28–0	W	U46.5
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	24–21	L	O43.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	26–17	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF LLLLW	3-6	33%	2-2	2-1
CMU WLWWW	6-3	67%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF UOOUU	4-5	44%	5-4
CMU UOUOO	6-3	67%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 384 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CMU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUFF 1–0 CMU BUFF leads · 1 game since 2023 · BUFF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Central Michigan 13 @ Buffalo 37	CMU -1	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−9.8 →−11.4▼ 1.6#112

CMU−14.4 →−9.8▲ 4.6#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BUFF

Longer bar = better

CMU

#99

Offense

CMU better ▶

#75

#27

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#58

−0.3 #103

Turnovers

CMU better ▶

+0.6 #26

67 plays #56

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

61 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: CMU defense

	BUFF off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #88	24.0 #66	CMU
Yards / play	5.30 #98	5.43 #63	CMU
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.05 #44	CMU
Success rate	40% #109	41% #58	CMU

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	CMU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #92	19.6 #23	BUFF
Yards / play	5.55 #82	4.54 #11	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.20 #36	+0.06 #54	Even
Success rate	41% #89	37% #20	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.8 #99	7.0 #95	11.8 #101	8.0 #26	4.2 #123	12.2 #79
CMU allowed	3.8 #39	8.7 #94	12.4 #69	6.6 #101	5.0 #37	11.6 #61

CMU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	7.7 #31	8.7 #69	16.3 #50	5.3 #82	2.4 #135	7.8 #127
BUFF allowed	1.9 #5	5.0 #17	6.9 #9	5.3 #69	6.7 #73	12.0 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.