Miami (OH) @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Wed, Nov 19, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff36°F3 mphgusts 8DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

5-5 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

5-5 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

M-OH -2.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 23–20 BUFF

✓ M-OH (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -2.5

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -2.5

5 → M-OH

CloseM-OH -2.5

5 pts toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open39.5

▼ 1

Close38.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -2.5 · closed M-OH -2.5 · moved 5 toward M-OHmodel M-OH -4.5

model M-OH -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (223 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (149 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -2.5

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total39.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 2.5-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 38.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 3.6; 49.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	MRSH @ UL 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	51–54	L	O48
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	TROY @ ARMY 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	19–0	W	U42
Close	AFA @ SDSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	31–20	W	O43.5
Close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Close	M-OH @ NIU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	25–14	W	O38.5
Close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WWWLL	6-4	60%	3-2	5-0
BUFF LLLWL	3-7	30%	1-4	2-2

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UOOUU	4-6	40%	5-5
BUFF OOUUO	5-5	50%	5-5

Went over in Q3. Of 107 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–42.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
BUFF	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

M-OH 17–9 BUFF M-OH leads · 26 games since 1999 · M-OH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2023	Buffalo 10 @ Miami (OH) 23	M-OH -7.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−2.8 →−6.4▼ 3.6#92

BUFF−9.8 →−12.7▼ 2.9#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

M-OH

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#95

Offense

Even

#106

#48

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#34

+0.4 #36

Turnovers

◀ M-OH better

−0.6 #118

62 plays #123

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

68 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	M-OH off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #102	21.4 #39	BUFF
Yards / play	5.59 #72	4.66 #16	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.06 #54	BUFF
Success rate	40% #106	38% #25	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BUFF off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #90	21.9 #43	M-OH
Yards / play	5.30 #98	4.96 #30	M-OH
PPA / play	0.00 #122	+0.05 #47	M-OH
Success rate	39% #113	42% #71	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	3.8 #117	5.9 #109	9.7 #116	7.4 #39	6.0 #84	13.4 #54
BUFF allowed	2.4 #11	5.2 #21	7.6 #12	5.8 #85	7.4 #99	13.2 #91

BUFF scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.6 #99	7.0 #93	11.6 #101	7.5 #37	4.4 #122	11.9 #81
M-OH allowed	2.4 #11	7.2 #68	9.6 #24	4.8 #48	7.5 #102	12.3 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.