Missouri @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

7-3 · Power #18

final

Final

Oklahoma

8-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -4.5

✓ OU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 20–25 OU

✓ OU (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -9.5

CloseOU -4.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -9.5

5 → MIZ

CloseOU -4.5

5 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -9.5 · closed OU -4.5 · moved 5 toward MIZmodel OU -3

model OU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (216 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (86 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -9.5

CloseOU -4.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 4.5-point home favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 17–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 3.9; 48.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs WASH 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	24–7	W	U50.5
Very close	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Close	IOWA vs NEB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	13–10	P	U41.5
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	44–13	W	O51.5
Close	IOWA vs WASH 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	40–16	W	O41.5
Close	VAN vs AUB 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	45–38	W	O46.5
Close	MIZ vs AUB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	21–17	W	U49.5
Close	IOWA vs WIS 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	42–10	W	O40.5
Close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WWLLW	6-4	60%	1-1	1-2
OU LWLWW	6-4	60%	2-3	4-3

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OUUOO	7-3	70%	7-3
OU UUOOU	2-8	20%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
OU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIZ 25–68 OU (5 tied) OU leads · 98 games since 1902 · OU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Oklahoma 23 @ Missouri 30	OU -3.5	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+10.7 →+15.2▲ 4.5#14

OU+11.4 →+15.5▲ 4.1#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MIZ

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

◀ MIZ better

#76

#18

Defense

Even

−0.2 #92

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #93

73 plays #14

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #22	14.8 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.18 #38	4.30 #6	OU
PPA / play	+0.20 #33	−0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	47% #24	33% #5	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	OU off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #64	19.9 #26	MIZ
Yards / play	5.39 #90	4.62 #13	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.08 #87	0.00 #22	MIZ
Success rate	43% #63	35% #11	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	6.7 #52	9.5 #57	16.2 #47	7.6 #35	10.5 #6	18.1 #14
OU allowed	2.3 #9	4.6 #13	6.9 #8	4.3 #39	3.6 #11	7.9 #12

OU scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	6.8 #50	9.1 #62	15.9 #53	8.1 #25	4.3 #125	12.4 #71
MIZ allowed	5.8 #80	4.4 #11	10.2 #31	5.0 #53	4.7 #31	9.7 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.