LSU @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F17 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

LSU

7-4 · Power #31

final

Final

Oklahoma

9-2 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -12.5

✓ LSU W

Total

36.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 12–24 OU

✓ OU (80%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOU -10

CloseOU -12.5

Total37.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -10

2.5 → OU

CloseOU -12.5

2.5 pts toward Oklahoma

Total

Open37.5

▼ 1

Close36.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -10 · closed OU -12.5 · moved 2.5 toward OUmodel OU -9

model OU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 55% (108 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (245 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOU -10

CloseOU -12.5

Total37.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 12.5-point home favorite against LSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 17–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 36.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 11.6; 45.5 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AUB vs UK 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	3–10	L	U44.5
Close	IOWA vs MSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-12	26–16	L	O36.5
Close	COLO vs UTAH 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	49–24	W	O43.5
Close	IOWA vs NU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	40–14	W	O38
Close	IOWA vs MINN 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–3	W	O39.5
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	MICH vs MINN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	27–24	L	O34.5
Close	WIS vs NEB 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-7	24–17	P	O36.5
Close	UCF vs UTAH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	14–28	L	U46.5
Loose	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13	43–21	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LLLLL	3-8	27%	1-3	1-4
OU WLWWW	7-4	64%	3-3	5-3

Venue/role: LSU away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU OOUUU	3-8	27%	7-4
OU UOOUU	2-9	18%	9-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 67% of games with totals 32.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	6-4 60%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
OU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LSU 1–0 OU LSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Oklahoma 17 @ LSU 37	LSU -4.5	LSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+15.7 →+10.6▼ 5.1#26

OU+11.4 →+15.9▲ 4.5#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

LSU

Longer bar = better

#104

Offense

OU better ▶

#86

#22

Defense

OU better ▶

+0.5 #31

Turnovers

◀ LSU better

0.0 #71

65 plays #91

Pace

Even

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	LSU off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #107	14.0 #6	OU
Yards / play	5.30 #97	4.30 #6	OU
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	−0.03 #17	OU
Success rate	40% #103	33% #4	OU

When OU has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	OU off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #72	18.5 #16	LSU
Yards / play	5.31 #94	4.93 #27	LSU
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	−0.02 #19	LSU
Success rate	42% #83	38% #27	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	3.1 #127	9.2 #56	12.3 #92	5.0 #90	5.4 #104	10.4 #107
OU allowed	2.4 #6	4.5 #10	6.8 #7	3.9 #29	3.3 #8	7.2 #12

OU scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	6.2 #67	9.5 #51	15.7 #53	7.6 #32	3.9 #129	11.5 #91
LSU allowed	5.2 #64	4.7 #13	9.9 #27	4.8 #48	3.7 #13	8.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.