Missouri @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F12 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Missouri

7-4 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-9 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

MIZ -4.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 30–26 ARK

✓ MIZ (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -2.5

CloseMIZ -4.5

Total58.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -2.5

2 → MIZ

CloseMIZ -4.5

2 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open58.5

▼ 4

Close54.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -2.5 · closed MIZ -4.5 · moved 2 toward MIZmodel MIZ -4

model MIZ -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (152 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (116 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -2.5

CloseMIZ -4.5

Total58.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 4.5-point road favorite at ARK, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 5.6; 53 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU @ ARK 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.25	13–10	L	U59
Very close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Very close	FSU @ NCSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	11–21	L	U58.5
Very close	TA&M @ ARK 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	45–42	L	O57.5
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	CIN @ SMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	29–27	L	U59.5
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	JMU @ TXST 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	52–20	W	O55.5
Close	TEX @ OKST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	42–14	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WLLWL	6-5	55%	1-2	5-2
ARK WLLWL	4-7	36%	2-4	3-3

Venue/role: MIZ away, as favorite; ARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ UUOOU	7-4	64%	7-4
ARK OOOUO	8-3	73%	2-9

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ARK	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIZ 2–0 ARK MIZ leads · 2 games since 2023 · MIZ has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Arkansas 21 @ Missouri 28	MIZ -3.5	MIZ W
Nov 24 2023	Missouri 48 @ Arkansas 14	MIZ -10	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+10.7 →+15.0▲ 4.3#16

ARK+8.7 →+8.9▲ 0.2#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MIZ

Longer bar = better

ARK

#39

Offense

ARK better ▶

#13

#17

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#130

−0.4 #105

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

−1.1 #132

73 plays #13

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #37	34.1 #127	MIZ
Yards / play	6.01 #43	6.35 #126	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.17 #40	+0.27 #135	MIZ
Success rate	46% #34	47% #130	MIZ

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #22	19.6 #22	Even
Yards / play	7.13 #7	4.60 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	0.00 #21	Even
Success rate	49% #11	34% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	6.4 #56	8.9 #63	15.3 #61	6.9 #43	9.5 #14	16.5 #19
ARK allowed	7.9 #121	10.8 #130	18.7 #128	8.3 #126	7.1 #86	15.4 #124

ARK scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.0 #25	13.8 #1	21.8 #7	6.1 #62	6.5 #73	12.5 #67
MIZ allowed	5.3 #67	5.3 #21	10.5 #34	4.8 #48	4.3 #21	9.1 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.