Arkansas @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-8 · Power #40

final

Final

Texas

7-3 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -10.5

✓ TEX W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 23–33 TEX

✓ TEX (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -10.5

CloseTEX -10.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -10.5

no move

CloseTEX -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -10.5 · unchangedmodel TEX -9

model TEX -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 42% (138 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -10.5

CloseTEX -10.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 10.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 52–37; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 10.1; 52.9 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	45–38	L	O58
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	ILL vs RUTG 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-13	35–13	W	U63.5
Close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK WWLLW	4-6	40%	2-2	3-2
TEX WLLLL	2-8	20%	1-3	2-6

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK UOOOU	7-3	70%	2-8
TEX UUOOU	4-6	40%	7-3

Went over in Q3. Of 471 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
TEX	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARK 0–1 TEX TEX leads · 1 game since 2023 · TEX has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Texas 20 @ Arkansas 10	TEX -13.5	ARK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+8.7 →+8.9▲ 0.2#32

TEX+23.2 →+14.8▼ 8.4#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ARK

Longer bar = better

TEX

#14

Offense

◀ ARK better

#84

#126

Defense

TEX better ▶

#25

−1.0 #131

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.8 #14

65 plays #87

Pace

Even

66 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #25	18.3 #16	Even
Yards / play	7.22 #5	4.76 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #15	−0.01 #20	Even
Success rate	50% #9	40% #45	ARK

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #69	32.3 #122	TEX
Yards / play	5.65 #70	6.18 #119	TEX
PPA / play	+0.08 #86	+0.25 #133	TEX
Success rate	39% #109	47% #130	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.2 #22	13.8 #2	22.0 #6	6.4 #52	5.7 #94	12.1 #77
TEX allowed	2.7 #15	6.3 #39	9.0 #18	2.0 #6	7.3 #99	9.3 #29

TEX scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	6.2 #64	6.9 #99	13.1 #87	7.0 #42	6.5 #72	13.5 #54
ARK allowed	7.3 #108	10.9 #126	18.2 #129	7.0 #113	7.1 #95	14.1 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.