Kentucky @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

5-5 · Power #52

final

Final

Vanderbilt

8-2 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -6.5

✓ VAN W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 23–30 VAN

✓ VAN (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -10.5

CloseVAN -6.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -10.5

4 → UK

CloseVAN -6.5

4 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -10.5 · closed VAN -6.5 · moved 4 toward UKmodel VAN -10.5

model VAN -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (233 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (89 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -10.5

CloseVAN -6.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 6.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 45–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 7; 55.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC vs NEB 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	28–20	W	U50.5
Close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	MISS vs FLA 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	34–24	L	O53.5
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Close	VAN vs AUB 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	45–38	W	O46.5
Close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	44–13	W	O51.5
Close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-7	34–17	W	O48
Close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-7.5	30–29	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WLWWW	5-5	50%	1-2	4-3
VAN LWWWW	8-2	80%	5-1	5-1

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK UOUOU	5-5	50%	5-5
VAN UOUOO	6-4	60%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 567 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
VAN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UK 1–1 VAN Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · VAN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Vanderbilt 20 @ Kentucky 13	UK -12.5	VAN W
Sep 23 2023	Kentucky 45 @ Vanderbilt 28	UK -13	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.2 →+7.4▲ 2.2#43

VAN+3.1 →+14.0▲ 10.9#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

VAN

#82

Offense

VAN better ▶

#57

Defense

◀ UK better

#79

−0.4 #107

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

+0.2 #53

68 plays #53

Pace

◀ UK faster

61 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #76	22.2 #48	VAN
Yards / play	5.35 #95	5.60 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	+0.19 #114	Even
Success rate	44% #57	42% #79	UK

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #9	23.1 #56	VAN
Yards / play	7.25 #4	5.24 #49	VAN
PPA / play	+0.40 #1	+0.05 #50	VAN
Success rate	53% #3	42% #74	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UK scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.2 #64	8.2 #78	14.4 #73	5.0 #92	6.5 #72	11.5 #93
VAN allowed	5.4 #69	7.7 #78	13.1 #76	4.0 #31	5.1 #36	9.1 #26

VAN scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.3 #61	11.6 #17	17.9 #32	9.3 #12	10.4 #6	19.7 #3
UK allowed	5.2 #63	9.1 #98	14.3 #88	4.4 #41	4.1 #20	8.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.