Kentucky @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Louisville

Weather at kickoff34°F5 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kentucky

5-6 · Power #52

final

Final

Louisville

7-4 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -1.5

✓ LOU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 25–25 LOU

✗ UK (50%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -2.5

CloseUK -1.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -2.5

4 → UK

CloseUK -1.5

4 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -2.5 · closed UK -1.5 · moved 4 toward UKmodel LOU -5.5

model LOU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 50% (161 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (153 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -2.5

CloseUK -1.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 1.5-point road favorite at LOU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 41–0 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 45.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 2.4; 52.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SC @ OU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	35–9	W	O40.5
Very close	UK @ FLA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–48	L	O42.5
Very close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Very close	OU @ MIZ 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	23–30	L	O42
Close	ND @ SYR 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-0.5	41–24	W	O48
Close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Close	ARIZ @ HOU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	28–31	L	O47.5
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	TULN @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	27–24	W	O44
Close	UK @ MSST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LWWWL	5-6	45%	1-3	1-2
LOU LWLLL	3-8	27%	0-7	1-1

Venue/role: UK away, as favorite; LOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OUOUO	6-5	55%	5-6
LOU OUOUU	5-6	45%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LOU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UK 1–1 LOU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · LOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Louisville 41 @ Kentucky 14	LOU -3.5	LOU W
Nov 25 2023	Kentucky 38 @ Louisville 31	LOU -7.5	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.2 →+5.9▲ 0.7#45

LOU+11.2 →+8.6▼ 2.6#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

LOU

#90

Offense

LOU better ▶

#60

#74

Defense

LOU better ▶

#26

−0.5 #114

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.1 #65

68 plays #51

Pace

◀ UK faster

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	UK off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #82	23.0 #56	LOU
Yards / play	5.28 #101	4.84 #19	LOU
PPA / play	+0.04 #109	−0.06 #12	LOU
Success rate	43% #67	37% #15	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #56	25.1 #74	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #46	5.57 #70	LOU
PPA / play	+0.09 #80	+0.08 #68	Even
Success rate	43% #59	43% #84	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UK scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	5.6 #75	7.7 #84	13.4 #82	4.5 #101	7.2 #56	11.7 #88
LOU allowed	6.4 #94	6.5 #47	12.9 #73	3.5 #24	5.5 #39	9.0 #23

LOU scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.9 #41	8.5 #73	15.4 #58	6.2 #57	7.1 #60	13.3 #57
UK allowed	5.0 #59	10.2 #119	15.2 #97	5.9 #79	3.7 #13	9.6 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.