Miami @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff34°F3 mphgusts 10DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami

9-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

8-3 · Power #35

final

Closing spread

MIA -6.5

✓ MIA W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 29–22 PITT

✓ MIA (69%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -6.5

CloseMIA -6.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -6.5

no move

CloseMIA -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -6.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -8

model MIA -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (173 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -6.5

CloseMIA -6.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 6.5-point road favorite at PITT, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 38–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.7 against an average line of 6.9; 57.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	MIA @ SMU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	20–26	L	U50.5
Very close	PSU @ WIS 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–13	W	U47
Very close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Very close	NEB @ MD 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	34–31	L	O47.5
Very close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Very close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Very close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–20	L	U54
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	52–40	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLLWL	6-5	55%	1-2	5-5
PITT WWWLW	8-3	73%	4-2	2-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOUO	5-6	45%	9-2
PITT UOOUO	9-2	82%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
PITT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 30–12 PITT (1 tied) MIA leads · 43 games since 1950 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+18.0 →+19.3▲ 1.3#9

PITT+2.5 →+9.3▲ 6.8#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MIA

Longer bar = better

PITT

#24

Offense

◀ MIA better

#57

Defense

◀ MIA better

#26

+0.8 #15

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

+0.2 #55

67 plays #66

Pace

PITT faster ▶

69 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #25	23.7 #62	MIA
Yards / play	6.36 #26	4.81 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #27	−0.05 #13	Even
Success rate	48% #17	34% #9	Even

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	PITT off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #12	14.5 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #57	4.53 #10	MIA
PPA / play	+0.12 #64	−0.08 #7	MIA
Success rate	41% #93	36% #13	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.6 #50	9.9 #43	16.5 #43	9.1 #13	8.1 #39	17.2 #16
PITT allowed	4.1 #41	8.4 #92	12.5 #65	2.6 #9	8.0 #108	10.6 #49

PITT scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	9.1 #13	12.1 #11	21.2 #9	8.9 #14	7.5 #48	16.5 #19
MIA allowed	2.7 #13	1.8 #1	4.5 #3	2.7 #12	6.6 #67	9.4 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.