SMU @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

SMU

8-3 · Power #27

final

Final

California

6-5 · Power #76

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -13.5

✓ CAL W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 32–19 CAL

✗ SMU (83%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -10.5

CloseSMU -13.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -10.5

3 → SMU

CloseSMU -13.5

3 pts toward SMU

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -10.5 · closed SMU -13.5 · moved 3 toward SMUmodel SMU -12.5

model SMU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 45% (86 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (252 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -10.5

CloseSMU -13.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 13.5-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 38–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.6 against an average line of 12.8; 47.4 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH @ WVU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	48–14	W	O46.5
Very close	UVA @ UNC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	17–16	L	U50.5
Very close	SMU @ UVA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	33–7	W	U54.5
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	JMU @ MRSH 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-13.5	35–23	L	O53.5
Very close	TCU @ WVU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	23–17	L	U55.5
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Very close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU WLWWW	5-6	45%	2-3	3-5
CAL LLLWL	4-7	36%	1-4	3-3

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU OUUOU	3-8	27%	8-3
CAL UOUOU	5-6	45%	6-5

Went over in Q4. Of 628 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
CAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SMU 2–1 CAL SMU leads · 3 games since 1957 · CAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	California 6 @ SMU 38	SMU -11.5	SMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+12.5 →+10.8▼ 1.7#25

CAL+3.8 →−4.1▼ 7.9#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

SMU

Longer bar = better

CAL

#48

Offense

◀ SMU better

#109

#25

Defense

◀ SMU better

#63

+1.1 #5

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

−0.3 #98

66 plays #75

Pace

CAL faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #31	25.7 #76	SMU
Yards / play	6.23 #31	5.38 #54	SMU
PPA / play	+0.16 #46	+0.09 #64	Even
Success rate	41% #84	41% #56	CAL

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	CAL off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #95	19.1 #20	SMU
Yards / play	4.97 #120	5.16 #38	SMU
PPA / play	+0.04 #107	−0.09 #5	SMU
Success rate	39% #113	39% #38	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	5.5 #80	10.5 #29	16.1 #49	6.2 #59	9.3 #22	15.5 #29
CAL allowed	5.0 #57	7.3 #63	12.3 #64	4.9 #54	6.9 #77	11.8 #61

CAL scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.5 #52	6.3 #106	12.8 #88	4.4 #104	5.3 #109	9.6 #114
SMU allowed	2.7 #13	6.1 #35	8.8 #14	2.7 #12	6.6 #70	9.4 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.