Arizona vs SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Trust & Will Holiday Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Jan 2, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTTrust & Will Holiday Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff63°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

9-3 · Power #26

final

Final

SMU

8-4 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -2.5

✓ SMU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 26–27 SMU

✓ SMU (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -1.5

CloseSMU -2.5

Total52.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -1.5

4 → SMU

CloseSMU -2.5

4 pts toward SMU

Total

Open52.5

▲ 3

Close55.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -1.5 · closed SMU -2.5 · moved 4 toward SMUmodel ARIZ -1

model ARIZ -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 45% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (167 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -1.5

CloseSMU -2.5

Total52.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SMU won 24–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 2.6; 53.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs ASU 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	19–45	L	O51
Close	COLO vs BYU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & total	-3	14–36	L	U55.5
Close	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	35–21	W	O55
Close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Close	KSU vs TCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-1	31–28	W	U60.5
Close	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	BAY vs LSU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	31–44	L	O62.5
Close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Close	USC vs TA&M 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	35–31	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ARIZ WLWWW	8-4	67%	—	2-2
SMU LWWWL	5-7	42%	—	3-6

Venue/role: ARIZ neutral, as underdog; SMU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ OUUUU	4-8	33%	9-3
SMU UUOUO	4-8	33%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SMU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ−2.1 →+10.9▲ 13.0#26

SMU+12.5 →+10.2▼ 2.3#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

SMU

#44

Offense

Even

#38

#18

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#35

+1.3 #1

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #9

69 plays #41

Pace

◀ ARIZ faster

66 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #26	20.7 #35	Even
Yards / play	5.85 #50	5.22 #40	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #38	−0.05 #12	SMU
Success rate	43% #63	40% #51	Even

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #23	18.9 #17	Even
Yards / play	6.31 #24	4.56 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #36	−0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	42% #69	38% #25	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	9.3 #7	8.2 #73	17.4 #25	8.0 #21	6.9 #62	14.9 #34
SMU allowed	2.8 #12	6.8 #49	9.5 #19	3.1 #16	7.3 #86	10.3 #46

SMU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	5.7 #74	9.7 #41	15.3 #52	6.3 #58	10.3 #9	16.5 #19
ARIZ allowed	6.1 #90	5.1 #16	11.2 #43	4.0 #33	3.0 #5	7.0 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.