Pittsburgh vs East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Go Bowling Military Bowl, 2025)

Sat, Dec 27, 2025, 11:00 AM ESTGo Bowling Military Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff38°F9 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh

8-4 · Power #35

final

Final

East Carolina

8-4 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -13.5

✓ ECU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 33–21 ECU

✗ PITT (80%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -6

ClosePITT -13.5

Total59.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -6

7.5 → PITT

ClosePITT -13.5

7.5 pts toward Pittsburgh

Total

Open59.5

▼ 8

Close51.5

Down 8 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -6 · closed PITT -13.5 · moved 7.5 toward PITTmodel PITT -5

model PITT -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (93 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -6

ClosePITT -13.5

Total59.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like PITT as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorite against ECU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 23–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 4 similar games. 40 points stayed under 51.5, as in 0 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 22 against an average line of 10.8; 65 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LSU vs PUR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-15	63–7	W	O54.25
Loose	VT vs TULN 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-13	41–20	W	O44
Loose	UCLA vs PITT 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-8.5	35–37	L	O54.5
Loose	UCLA vs BOIS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	35–22	W	O45.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PITT WWLWL	8-4	67%	—	6-1
ECU WLWLW	7-5	58%	—	1-2

Venue/role: PITT neutral, as favorite; ECU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OOUOU	9-3	75%	8-4
ECU OOOOU	6-6	50%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
ECU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+2.5 →+8.4▲ 5.9#35

ECU−5.0 →+3.9▲ 8.9#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PITT

Longer bar = better

ECU

#60

Offense

ECU better ▶

#29

#31

Defense

Even

#31

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

ECU better ▶

+0.5 #28

68 plays #55

Pace

ECU faster ▶

78 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	PITT off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #15	20.3 #30	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #66	5.18 #38	ECU
PPA / play	+0.13 #59	+0.02 #33	ECU
Success rate	40% #99	37% #22	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #22	24.9 #70	ECU
Yards / play	5.93 #46	4.90 #23	PITT
PPA / play	+0.19 #32	−0.03 #18	Even
Success rate	48% #17	36% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	8.3 #20	11.7 #13	20.0 #11	8.2 #20	6.9 #62	15.1 #31
ECU allowed	3.3 #24	8.4 #87	11.8 #51	4.0 #31	4.6 #23	8.6 #17

ECU scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	10.1 #6	8.1 #77	18.2 #21	7.7 #27	7.7 #47	15.3 #29
PITT allowed	4.0 #40	8.8 #92	12.8 #72	3.6 #26	7.9 #102	11.5 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.