East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F14 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

East Carolina

7-4 · Power #51

▲ winner

Final

Florida Atlantic

4-7 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

ECU -6.5

✓ ECU W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 33–26 FAU

✓ ECU (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -6.5

CloseECU -6.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -6.5

no move

CloseECU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open66.5

no move

Close66.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -6.5 · unchangedmodel ECU -10.5

model ECU -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (173 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -6.5

CloseECU -6.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 6.5-point road favorite at FAU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ECU won 42–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.7 against an average line of 6.9; 65.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ UNT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–29	W	U71
Very close	MEM @ UNT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	45–42	L	O69.5
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	ODU @ GASO 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	45–10	W	U62
Very close	WSU @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	31–20	W	U63
Very close	WKU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	35–17	W	U67.5
Very close	MEM @ UTSA 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	36–44	L	O61.5
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Very close	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	45–21	W	O62
Very close	BOIS @ USU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	45–10	W	U63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LWLWL	6-5	55%	3-2	5-3
FAU LWWWW	7-4	64%	4-1	4-4

Venue/role: ECU away, as favorite; FAU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU OOOOO	6-5	55%	7-4
FAU UOOUO	7-4	64%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 41% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
FAU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ECU 4–0 FAU ECU leads · 4 games since 2013 · ECU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 7 2024	Florida Atlantic 14 @ East Carolina 49	ECU -5.5	ECU W
Nov 11 2023	East Carolina 22 @ Florida Atlantic 7	FAU -7.5	ECU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−5.0 →+2.4▲ 7.4#60

FAU−10.0 →−9.4▲ 0.6#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ECU

Longer bar = better

FAU

#38

Offense

◀ ECU better

#61

#39

Defense

◀ ECU better

#116

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

◀ ECU better

−1.5 #137

78 plays #2

Pace

Even

79 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ECU offense

	ECU off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #32	35.8 #132	ECU
Yards / play	5.93 #50	5.95 #107	ECU
PPA / play	+0.16 #48	+0.19 #115	ECU
Success rate	47% #22	44% #108	ECU

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	FAU off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #39	21.9 #44	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #67	5.23 #45	ECU
PPA / play	+0.12 #63	+0.04 #46	Even
Success rate	42% #73	38% #20	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	9.1 #13	6.9 #94	16.0 #48	8.4 #22	8.4 #32	16.7 #18
FAU allowed	7.5 #113	9.2 #101	16.7 #112	9.1 #130	10.0 #131	19.1 #135

FAU scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	9.7 #9	9.5 #50	19.3 #19	4.5 #105	8.2 #35	12.6 #63
ECU allowed	3.4 #28	9.2 #101	12.5 #68	4.4 #38	5.0 #30	9.4 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.