UAB @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F15 mphgusts 35DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UAB

3-8 · Power #119

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

4-7 · Power #113

final

Closing spread

TLSA -9.5

✓ UAB W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 22–31 TLSA

✗ TLSA (73%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTLSA -9.5

CloseTLSA -9.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTLSA -9.5

no move

CloseTLSA -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TLSA -9.5 · unchangedmodel TLSA -5

model TLSA -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 45% (144 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTLSA -9.5

CloseTLSA -9.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TLSA as a 9.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UAB won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 7.5; 55.3 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Very close	TROY vs GAST 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	31–19	W	U51
Very close	USA vs ARST 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-8.5	14–15	L	U57.5
Very close	CCU vs GAST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7	40–27	W	O56.5
Very close	MTSU vs SHSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–17	W	U53.5
Very close	GASO vs GAST 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	41–24	W	O58.5
Very close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	16–13	L	U50
Close	UNM vs WYO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	45–49	L	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB WLLLL	3-8	27%	2-3	3-6
TLSA WWLWW	6-5	55%	3-2	2-1

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; TLSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB UUUOU	5-6	45%	3-8
TLSA OOOUO	5-6	45%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
TLSA	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UAB 2–4 TLSA TLSA leads · 6 games since 2007 · UAB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Tulsa 21 @ UAB 59	UAB -2.5	UAB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−11.1 →−13.9▼ 2.8#120

TLSA−18.6 →−11.7▲ 6.9#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UAB

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#76

Offense

◀ UAB better

#105

#135

Defense

TLSA better ▶

#80

−1.2 #135

Turnovers

TLSA better ▶

−0.7 #121

69 plays #40

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

76 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #80	28.7 #95	Even
Yards / play	5.86 #59	5.57 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #95	+0.09 #73	TLSA
Success rate	43% #70	43% #83	Even

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: TLSA offense

	TLSA off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #103	39.5 #137	TLSA
Yards / play	5.30 #99	6.59 #133	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	+0.31 #136	TLSA
Success rate	40% #101	50% #134	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	5.0 #92	8.7 #68	13.7 #79	6.5 #52	5.8 #92	12.3 #73
TLSA allowed	5.5 #76	9.9 #113	15.5 #101	5.9 #82	6.7 #72	12.6 #79

TLSA scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	6.3 #64	5.7 #114	12.0 #97	4.5 #98	6.0 #86	10.5 #102
UAB allowed	11.7 #136	11.2 #131	22.9 #136	9.9 #134	6.7 #72	16.6 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.