South Alabama @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F12 mphgusts 26Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

South Alabama

4-7 · Power #102

final

Final

Texas State

5-6 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -9.5

✓ TXST W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 25–35 TXST

✓ TXST (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -9.5

CloseTXST -9.5

Total63.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -9.5

no move

CloseTXST -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open63.5

▼ 1

Close62.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -9.5 · unchangedmodel TXST -10.5

model TXST -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 45% (144 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -9.5

CloseTXST -9.5

Total63.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 9.5-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 49–26; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 62.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 8.4; 54.9 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	UNT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	52–20	W	O65.5
Very close	APP vs GAST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	42–17	W	U60.25
Very close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-13	30–37	L	P67
Very close	CONN vs AFA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	26–16	W	U64.5
Very close	WKU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-6.5	31–10	W	U60
Very close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Very close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	34–24	P	U64
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LWLWW	5-6	45%	3-2	3-1
TXST LLLWL	3-8	27%	1-4	1-6

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UOOUO	7-4	64%	4-7
TXST OOOUU	6-5	55%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 217 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TXST	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USA 4–7 TXST TXST leads · 11 games since 2013 · TXST has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Texas State 45 @ South Alabama 38	TXST -2.5	TXST W
Nov 25 2023	South Alabama 44 @ Texas State 52	USA -6	TXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−2.3 →−8.8▼ 6.5#98

TXST+1.6 →−2.0▼ 3.6#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

USA

Longer bar = better

TXST

#78

Offense

TXST better ▶

#22

#89

Defense

Even

#101

+0.2 #59

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−0.5 #111

70 plays #33

Pace

Even

71 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #76	31.0 #116	USA
Yards / play	5.46 #87	5.73 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #75	+0.18 #110	USA
Success rate	42% #75	44% #98	USA

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #19	28.7 #96	TXST
Yards / play	6.59 #21	5.60 #74	TXST
PPA / play	+0.27 #14	+0.17 #109	TXST
Success rate	46% #33	42% #78	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USA scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.6 #47	5.9 #111	12.5 #91	6.7 #48	7.3 #54	14.0 #46
TXST allowed	4.6 #52	9.6 #109	14.3 #91	6.9 #108	8.0 #106	14.9 #118

TXST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	8.0 #24	10.1 #40	18.1 #26	5.5 #80	10.4 #7	15.9 #24
USA allowed	7.3 #107	6.9 #55	14.2 #90	5.9 #82	8.0 #106	13.9 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.