Troy @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Troy

7-4 · Power #99

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

7-4 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

USM -6.5

✓ TROY W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 21–28 USM

✗ USM (67%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -6.5

CloseUSM -6.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSM -6.5

no move

CloseUSM -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USM -6.5 · unchangedmodel USM -5

model USM -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (235 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -6.5

CloseUSM -6.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 6.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 28–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 6.3; 39.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs MOST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	17–21	L	U51.5
Very close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	16–13	L	U50
Very close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25
Very close	CONN vs GAST 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	34–27	P	O48
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	28–0	W	U46.5
Very close	TROY vs ARST 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–23	L	U52.5
Very close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	ARMY vs TEM 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	14–13	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWLLW	8-3	73%	4-1	4-2
USM WWLLL	6-5	55%	4-2	5-3

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; USM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OOUUU	5-6	45%	7-4
USM UOUUO	6-5	55%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
USM	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TROY 7–3 USM TROY leads · 10 games since 1977 · TROY has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Southern Miss 20 @ Troy 52	TROY -17.5	TROY W
Nov 25 2023	Troy 35 @ Southern Miss 17	TROY -17	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−7.1 →−9.7▼ 2.6#104

USM−18.7 →−7.5▲ 11.2#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TROY

Longer bar = better

USM

#108

Offense

USM better ▶

#63

#72

Defense

Even

#64

0.0 #73

Turnovers

USM better ▶

+1.1 #6

66 plays #79

Pace

USM faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: USM defense

	TROY off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #86	27.4 #89	Even
Yards / play	4.81 #127	5.33 #52	USM
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	+0.03 #37	USM
Success rate	39% #111	42% #79	USM

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #44	24.5 #68	USM
Yards / play	5.87 #58	5.74 #84	USM
PPA / play	+0.15 #52	+0.09 #71	Even
Success rate	41% #96	41% #66	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.5 #124	6.7 #98	10.2 #115	4.0 #113	9.5 #16	13.5 #56
USM allowed	7.7 #119	5.5 #23	13.3 #77	6.1 #88	8.0 #105	14.1 #102

USM scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	6.5 #51	8.1 #78	14.6 #71	6.9 #43	9.4 #19	16.3 #21
TROY allowed	7.5 #114	5.8 #28	13.4 #78	6.5 #101	4.5 #26	11.1 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.