Georgia State @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F9 mphgusts 26Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia State

1-9 · Power #125

final

Final

Troy

6-4 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -10.5

✓ TROY W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 20–31 TROY

✓ TROY (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -11.5

CloseTROY -10.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -11.5

1 → GAST

CloseTROY -10.5

1 pt toward Georgia State

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -11.5 · closed TROY -10.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel TROY -11.5

model TROY -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 42% (139 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (299 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -11.5

CloseTROY -10.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 10.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 31–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 10.2; 47.1 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Very close	BUFF vs AKR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-10	16–24	L	U48.5
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Very close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Very close	APP vs CCU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	37–45	L	O48
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	M-OH vs EMU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-12.5	44–30	W	O47.5
Very close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-10	14–21	L	U49
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	14–10	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LLLLL	1-9	10%	0-4	1-8
TROY WWWLL	7-3	70%	3-2	3-1

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OOOOU	6-4	60%	1-9
TROY OOOUU	5-5	50%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
TROY	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GAST 4–7 TROY TROY leads · 11 games since 2013 · TROY has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Troy 28 @ Georgia State 7	GAST -1	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−9.1 →−17.1▼ 8.0#127

TROY−7.1 →−9.4▼ 2.3#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

GAST

Longer bar = better

TROY

#91

Offense

◀ GAST better

#109

#133

Defense

TROY better ▶

#76

−1.2 #136

Turnovers

TROY better ▶

0.0 #78

69 plays #40

Pace

◀ GAST faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #113	25.0 #74	TROY
Yards / play	5.43 #87	5.69 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	+0.11 #79	Even
Success rate	41% #86	41% #69	Even

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #90	39.6 #137	TROY
Yards / play	4.71 #128	6.63 #132	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.28 #135	TROY
Success rate	39% #111	47% #128	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	7.5 #32	4.2 #128	11.7 #100	4.5 #108	4.6 #120	9.1 #120
TROY allowed	8.3 #124	5.8 #30	14.1 #87	6.6 #104	4.3 #22	10.9 #51

TROY scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.8 #117	6.4 #103	10.2 #116	3.7 #114	9.0 #26	12.7 #64
GAST allowed	8.7 #129	10.6 #123	19.3 #130	9.0 #128	11.3 #134	20.3 #135

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.