Oklahoma State @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

1-9 · Power #111

final

Final

UCF

4-6 · Power #66

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -12.5

✓ OKST W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 17–31 UCF

✓ UCF (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -13.5

CloseUCF -12.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -13.5

1 → OKST

CloseUCF -12.5

1 pt toward Oklahoma State

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -13.5 · closed UCF -12.5 · moved 1 toward OKSTmodel UCF -20

model UCF -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 56% (107 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (299 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -13.5

CloseUCF -12.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 12.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 17–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 14.2; 46.2 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	24–17	L	U49
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Very close	CAL vs ASU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Close	NIU vs AKR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & spread	-14	29–16	L	O43.5
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST LLLWW	3-6	33%	1-3	3-5
UCF WWLLL	4-6	40%	3-3	3-2

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST OOUOU	5-5	50%	1-9
UCF UOUOO	5-5	50%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	1-9 10%	3-6 33%	5-5 50%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OKST 1–2 UCF UCF leads · 3 games since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Oklahoma State 3 @ UCF 45	OKST -2	UCF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−2.7 →−13.4▼ 10.7#118

UCF+6.8 →+1.9▼ 4.9#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

OKST

Longer bar = better

UCF

#130

Offense

UCF better ▶

#88

#128

Defense

UCF better ▶

#61

−0.5 #112

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

−0.1 #84

66 plays #83

Pace

UCF faster ▶

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	OKST off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	14.3 #135	22.8 #52	UCF
Yards / play	4.66 #131	5.05 #35	UCF
PPA / play	−0.06 #129	+0.06 #57	UCF
Success rate	36% #126	44% #100	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #82	36.3 #132	UCF
Yards / play	5.75 #65	6.39 #129	UCF
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.26 #134	UCF
Success rate	39% #112	45% #115	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	4.7 #99	3.5 #133	8.2 #128	2.4 #133	3.7 #129	6.1 #135
UCF allowed	3.5 #35	9.8 #112	13.3 #77	5.6 #68	3.9 #16	9.5 #31

UCF scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	6.2 #65	7.1 #94	13.3 #83	6.5 #52	5.6 #96	12.1 #79
OKST allowed	9.9 #131	11.4 #131	21.3 #135	9.2 #130	5.8 #49	15.0 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.