Baylor @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

5-5 · Power #50

final

Final

Arizona

7-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -6.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 27–34 ARIZ

✓ ARIZ (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -6.5

CloseARIZ -6.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -6.5

no move

CloseARIZ -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -6.5 · unchangedmodel ARIZ -7.5

model ARIZ -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (229 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -6.5

CloseARIZ -6.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 6.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 41–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 60.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 6.6; 59.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	ARIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	24–20	L	U56.5
Very close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	TCU vs TTU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	35–34	L	O66
Very close	TULN vs SMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	59–24	W	O65
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Very close	BOIS vs BYU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	28–31	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY LLLWL	2-8	20%	1-3	1-3
ARIZ LLWLW	6-4	60%	4-2	4-2

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY OOUUO	6-4	60%	5-5
ARIZ OOOUU	4-6	40%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
ARIZ	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY+6.9 →+5.8▼ 1.1#46

ARIZ−2.1 →+8.7▲ 10.8#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BAY

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#46

Offense

Even

#49

#102

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#27

−1.0 #133

Turnovers

ARIZ better ▶

+1.0 #9

77 plays #3

Pace

◀ BAY faster

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #32	20.3 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #46	4.61 #12	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.14 #57	+0.02 #32	ARIZ
Success rate	44% #48	39% #33	Even

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #35	31.9 #120	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.05 #44	5.72 #88	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.19 #40	+0.14 #95	ARIZ
Success rate	42% #77	44% #106	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	5.1 #87	12.3 #8	17.4 #36	3.7 #114	11.1 #2	14.8 #40
ARIZ allowed	5.9 #83	5.1 #18	11.0 #47	4.8 #48	3.6 #12	8.4 #16

ARIZ scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	10.4 #6	8.8 #67	19.2 #19	7.9 #30	5.3 #105	13.2 #57
BAY allowed	6.9 #105	10.2 #118	17.1 #119	5.5 #68	8.6 #122	14.1 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.