Kansas @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Kansas

5-4 · Power #54

final

Final

Arizona

5-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -6.5

✓ KU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 25–32 ARIZ

✓ ARIZ (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -5.5

CloseARIZ -6.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -5.5

1 → ARIZ

CloseARIZ -6.5

1 pt toward Arizona

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -5.5 · closed ARIZ -6.5 · moved 1 toward ARIZmodel ARIZ -8.5

model ARIZ -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (215 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (234 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARIZ -5.5

CloseARIZ -6.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 6.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 6.6; 56.5 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	COLO vs CIN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	34–23	W	P57
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Very close	PITT vs UVA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	19–24	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LWLLL	3-6	33%	1-2	0-2
ARIZ LWLLW	5-3	63%	4-1	4-1

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU OUOOO	5-4	56%	5-4
ARIZ OUOOO	4-4	50%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
ARIZ	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+6.8 →+3.9▼ 2.9#54

ARIZ−2.1 →+7.8▲ 9.9#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#35

Offense

◀ KU better

#49

#86

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#22

0.0 #72

Turnovers

ARIZ better ▶

+1.0 #12

64 plays #105

Pace

ARIZ faster ▶

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #52	19.9 #29	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.10 #45	4.37 #8	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.25 #24	−0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	49% #19	38% #25	Even

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #33	25.3 #78	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.07 #48	5.71 #84	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.17 #46	+0.20 #119	ARIZ
Success rate	43% #70	41% #64	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	8.1 #25	9.9 #47	18.0 #32	8.7 #20	4.7 #116	13.3 #60
ARIZ allowed	4.8 #52	5.1 #22	9.9 #35	5.3 #63	3.6 #11	8.9 #24

ARIZ scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	11.3 #5	9.8 #51	21.0 #13	8.3 #25	4.5 #118	12.8 #69
KU allowed	8.1 #118	6.0 #37	14.1 #81	5.0 #56	6.2 #67	11.2 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.