Iowa State @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

5-4 · Power #36

▲ winner

Final

TCU

6-2 · Power #33

final

Closing spread

TCU -7.5

✓ ISU W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 25–32 TCU

✗ TCU (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -6.5

CloseTCU -7.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -6.5

1 → TCU

CloseTCU -7.5

1 pt toward TCU

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -6.5 · closed TCU -7.5 · moved 1 toward TCUmodel TCU -3

model TCU -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (181 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (76 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -6.5

CloseTCU -7.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 7.5-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 7.2; 59.6 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DUKE vs GT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	18–27	L	U60.5
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	UNC vs SYR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	40–7	W	U59
Very close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8	38–6	W	U58
Very close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Very close	UNC vs DUKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	47–45	L	O53
Very close	CLEM vs DUKE 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4	45–46	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WLLLL	3-6	33%	0-3	1-1
TCU LLLWL	3-5	38%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU OOUOU	4-5	44%	5-4
TCU UUOOU	4-4	50%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 43 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TCU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ISU 1–0 TCU ISU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	TCU 14 @ Iowa State 27	TCU -6.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+7.6 →+8.3▲ 0.7#37

TCU+7.9 →+8.9▲ 1.0#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ISU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#56

Offense

TCU better ▶

#40

#50

Defense

Even

#58

+0.1 #67

Turnovers

TCU better ▶

+0.5 #34

69 plays #37

Pace

Even

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #73	25.1 #76	Even
Yards / play	5.92 #54	5.31 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #53	+0.07 #54	Even
Success rate	45% #44	40% #46	Even

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #29	22.0 #48	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #33	5.75 #90	TCU
PPA / play	+0.19 #40	+0.02 #31	Even
Success rate	44% #57	39% #29	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.1 #47	9.7 #53	16.8 #49	6.1 #70	5.0 #107	11.1 #92
TCU allowed	2.1 #7	7.4 #73	9.5 #25	6.4 #97	9.3 #127	15.6 #124

TCU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	5.6 #79	12.0 #13	17.6 #36	7.0 #43	10.0 #10	17.0 #21
ISU allowed	4.6 #48	8.0 #82	12.6 #71	4.9 #52	4.6 #28	9.4 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.