Kansas @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Kansas

5-5 · Power #54

final

Final

Iowa State

6-4 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -3.5

✓ ISU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 25–29 ISU

✓ ISU (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3.5

CloseISU -3.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -3.5

no move

CloseISU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -3.5 · unchangedmodel ISU -6.5

model ISU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (302 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3.5

CloseISU -3.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 3.5-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.4; 52.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs DUKE 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	45–46	L	O55
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Very close	WASH vs ILL 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	42–25	W	O54.5
Very close	ARIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-5.5	24–20	L	U56.5
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	24–10	W	U55
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–19	L	U58
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	13–24	L	U54
Very close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU WLLLW	4-6	40%	2-2	1-2
ISU LLLLW	4-6	40%	2-3	2-5

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UOOOU	5-5	50%	5-5
ISU OUOUU	4-6	40%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ISU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KU 2–0 ISU KU leads · 2 games since 2023 · KU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Iowa State 36 @ Kansas 45	ISU -2.5	KU W
Nov 4 2023	Kansas 28 @ Iowa State 21	ISU -2.5	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+6.8 →+4.2▼ 2.6#50

ISU+7.6 →+8.0▲ 0.4#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

ISU

#37

Offense

◀ KU better

#61

#86

Defense

ISU better ▶

#47

0.0 #72

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+0.2 #56

65 plays #95

Pace

ISU faster ▶

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #54	21.5 #40	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #50	5.71 #85	KU
PPA / play	+0.23 #25	+0.01 #26	Even
Success rate	48% #19	39% #35	Even

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #70	25.2 #76	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #64	5.68 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #61	+0.20 #122	ISU
Success rate	44% #49	41% #63	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	8.0 #23	9.9 #45	17.9 #30	8.1 #25	4.2 #126	12.3 #73
ISU allowed	4.1 #42	7.5 #75	11.6 #52	5.1 #54	4.8 #32	9.9 #39

ISU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0 #44	8.7 #67	15.7 #56	5.5 #76	5.9 #86	11.4 #89
KU allowed	8.0 #118	6.1 #34	14.1 #88	4.8 #49	6.3 #66	11.1 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.