BYU @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

BYU

9-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

7-3 · Power #58

final

Closing spread

BYU -2.5

✓ BYU W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 29–26 CIN

✓ BYU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -2.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total53.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -2.5

no move

CloseBYU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 4

Close57.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -2.5 · unchangedmodel BYU -5.5

model BYU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 48% (231 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -2.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total53.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 2.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 26–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 3.6; 61.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–16	W	U54
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	ISU @ KU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	36–45	L	O52.5
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Close	KSU @ KU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–27	L	U59.5
Close	COLO @ KU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	21–37	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WWWLW	7-3	70%	3-2	5-2
CIN LWWLL	5-4	56%	2-3	2-1

Venue/role: BYU away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OUO–O	5-4	56%	9-1
CIN UOUOU	6-4	60%	7-3

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%
CIN	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BYU 1–0 CIN BYU leads · 1 game since 2023 · BYU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2023	Cincinnati 27 @ BYU 35	Pick’em	BYU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+7.8 →+14.4▲ 6.6#17

CIN+3.5 →+5.9▲ 2.4#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BYU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#39

Offense

CIN better ▶

#13

#25

Defense

◀ BYU better

#79

+0.8 #15

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

0.0 #75

67 plays #62

Pace

◀ BYU faster

60 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #25	22.7 #50	BYU
Yards / play	6.19 #35	5.48 #61	BYU
PPA / play	+0.17 #44	+0.16 #104	BYU
Success rate	44% #50	44% #102	BYU

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #22	17.8 #14	Even
Yards / play	7.17 #7	4.95 #31	CIN
PPA / play	+0.30 #8	+0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	49% #13	38% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	7.1 #41	11.1 #21	18.2 #28	4.6 #103	10.4 #6	15.0 #37
CIN allowed	3.1 #26	6.6 #51	9.7 #26	6.5 #99	6.5 #67	13.0 #91

CIN scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	11.8 #4	10.3 #33	22.1 #7	4.7 #98	7.6 #47	12.3 #74
BYU allowed	5.1 #65	4.7 #13	9.8 #27	2.9 #17	4.8 #31	7.7 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.