Cincinnati @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F6 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati

7-4 · Power #58

final

Final

TCU

7-4 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -3

✓ TCU W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 28–32 TCU

✓ TCU (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTCU -3.5

CloseTCU -3

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -3.5

0.5 → CIN

CloseTCU -3

0.5 pts toward Cincinnati

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -3.5 · closed TCU -3 · moved 0.5 toward CINmodel TCU -5.5

model TCU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (264 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTCU -3.5

CloseTCU -3

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 3-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 45–23; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 7.3 against an average line of 2.9; 56.9 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	DUKE vs UVA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	17–34	L	U60
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	ARIZ vs COLO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	7–34	L	U57.5
Very close	OU vs BAY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	35–38	L	O61.5
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	GT vs PITT 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	28–42	L	O61.5
Very close	TTU vs CIN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	44–41	P	O60
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	BYU vs ECU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–27	L	U64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLLL	5-5	50%	2-1	2-2
TCU WLLLW	4-7	36%	2-3	4-5

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOUU	6-5	55%	7-4
TCU OUUOU	5-6	45%	7-4

Went over in Q4. Of 425 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%
TCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 0–1 TCU TCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	TCU 20 @ Cincinnati 13	TCU -2.5	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+3.5 →+5.4▲ 1.9#47

TCU+7.9 →+7.7▼ 0.2#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CIN

Longer bar = better

TCU

#17

Offense

◀ CIN better

#51

#84

Defense

TCU better ▶

#61

−0.2 #91

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #79

60 plays #133

Pace

TCU faster ▶

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #34	25.4 #76	CIN
Yards / play	7.09 #8	5.33 #51	CIN
PPA / play	+0.28 #11	+0.07 #60	CIN
Success rate	48% #15	41% #58	CIN

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #52	23.0 #57	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #38	5.47 #63	TCU
PPA / play	+0.14 #55	+0.16 #108	TCU
Success rate	44% #58	44% #107	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	10.7 #4	10.0 #43	20.7 #9	4.3 #105	7.5 #50	11.8 #87
TCU allowed	3.0 #19	7.5 #73	10.5 #34	5.5 #68	9.3 #127	14.8 #113

TCU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	5.4 #85	9.9 #44	15.3 #61	6.0 #66	8.2 #36	14.2 #43
CIN allowed	3.5 #35	6.3 #41	9.7 #24	6.5 #101	6.7 #72	13.3 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.