Kennesaw State @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F3 mphgusts 12DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kennesaw State

8-3 · Power #97

▲ winner

Final

Liberty

4-7 · Power #104

final

Closing spread

KENN -2.5

✓ KENN W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 90 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 28–26 LIB

✓ KENN (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -2.5

CloseKENN -2.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKENN -2.5

no move

CloseKENN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KENN -2.5 · unchangedmodel LIB -0.5

model LIB -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (240 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKENN -2.5

CloseKENN -2.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KENN as a 2.5-point road favorite at LIB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KENN won 48–42; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 90 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 3.1; 54.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	MRSH @ APP 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	24–26	L	U56.5
Very close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Very close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Very close	USM @ USA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	35–42	L	O53.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–7	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WWLLW	7-4	64%	2-3	4-3
LIB LWLLL	3-8	27%	1-4	1-1

Venue/role: KENN away, as favorite; LIB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN OUUOO	4-7	36%	8-3
LIB OOUOO	5-6	45%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 543 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LIB	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KENN 3–3 LIB Series tied · 6 games since 2015 · LIB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 23 2024	Liberty 24 @ Kennesaw State 27	LIB -27.5	KENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−24.1 →−8.6▲ 15.5#97

LIB−5.7 →−10.3▼ 4.6#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

KENN

Longer bar = better

LIB

#67

Offense

Even

#76

#66

Defense

Even

#71

−0.3 #102

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #115

69 plays #39

Pace

◀ KENN faster

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Even matchup

	KENN off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #71	24.5 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.89 #54	5.50 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #61	+0.12 #79	Even
Success rate	42% #81	42% #72	Even

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #91	23.5 #61	KENN
Yards / play	5.60 #72	5.73 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	+0.07 #62	KENN
Success rate	44% #52	41% #60	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	10.4 #6	4.5 #126	14.8 #69	6.1 #62	6.5 #73	12.5 #67
LIB allowed	2.7 #13	6.1 #34	8.8 #15	6.1 #88	8.5 #113	14.5 #106

LIB scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.0 #114	8.0 #80	12.0 #98	5.4 #87	6.7 #67	12.1 #77
KENN allowed	4.4 #46	6.4 #42	10.7 #42	5.5 #68	7.3 #90	12.8 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.