Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

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Middle Tennessee

2-9 · Power #128

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico State

4-7 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

MTSU 23–28 NMSU

✗ NMSU (67%) lost

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU WWLLW	5-6	45%	2-3	—
NMSU LLWWW	6-5	55%	3-2	—

Venue/role: MTSU away; NMSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU OUOOU	5-6	45%	2-9
NMSU UUUUO	4-7	36%	4-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NMSU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MTSU 0–2 NMSU NMSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · NMSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	New Mexico State 36 @ Middle Tennessee 21	MTSU -3.5	NMSU W
Nov 4 2023	Middle Tennessee 7 @ New Mexico State 13	NMSU -3	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−18.0 →−17.7▲ 0.3#130

NMSU−21.1 →−16.7▲ 4.4#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MTSU

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#91

Offense

◀ MTSU better

#124

#113

Defense

NMSU better ▶

#70

0.0 #74

Turnovers

NMSU better ▶

+0.2 #52

67 plays #65

Pace

NMSU faster ▶

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	MTSU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #111	27.3 #86	NMSU
Yards / play	5.41 #89	5.57 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.05 #54	NMSU
Success rate	43% #63	42% #69	Even

When NMSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NMSU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #113	31.5 #119	Even
Yards / play	4.69 #131	5.94 #104	MTSU
PPA / play	−0.01 #125	+0.19 #114	Even
Success rate	36% #125	45% #114	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	4.5 #101	6.1 #109	10.6 #112	5.2 #87	5.8 #92	11.0 #95
NMSU allowed	7.5 #110	6.5 #47	14.0 #86	6.5 #99	6.1 #59	12.6 #79

NMSU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	1.7 #134	7.6 #86	9.4 #121	2.7 #132	9.3 #21	12.0 #82
MTSU allowed	7.3 #107	9.9 #113	17.2 #115	4.3 #36	10.1 #133	14.4 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.