Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Missouri State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F15 mphgusts 30Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

6-5 · Power #93

▲ winner

Final

Missouri State

7-4 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

MOST -2.5

✓ LT W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 22–24 MOST

✗ MOST (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -3.5

CloseMOST -2.5

Total51.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMOST -3.5

1 → LT

CloseMOST -2.5

1 pt toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open51.5

▼ 6

Close45.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MOST -3.5 · closed MOST -2.5 · moved 1 toward LTmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (315 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (114 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -3.5

CloseMOST -2.5

Total51.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MOST as a 2.5-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 42–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 2.6; 47.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	25–24	L	U50
Close	CMU vs SDSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	22–21	L	U47.5
Close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	NIU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-0.5	23–29	L	O44
Close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	14–42	L	O48
Close	RICE vs ECU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–17	W	U47
Close	BGSU vs M-OH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	12–28	L	O38.5
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Close	MOST vs FIU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–21	W	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT LWLLW	7-4	64%	2-3	2-1
MOST WWWWL	7-4	64%	4-1	4-1

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; MOST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OOUUO	4-7	36%	6-5
MOST UUUOO	3-8	27%	7-4

Went over in Q4. Of 447 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MOST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−11.6 →−8.1▲ 3.5#95

MOST−21.0 →−11.1▲ 9.9#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

MOST

#85

Offense

Even

#75

#35

Defense

◀ LT better

#93

+0.7 #18

Turnovers

◀ LT better

+0.1 #66

66 plays #82

Pace

Even

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #77	27.1 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #91	5.74 #83	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #82	+0.15 #102	Even
Success rate	41% #89	44% #103	Even

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	MOST off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #84	20.5 #32	LT
Yards / play	5.94 #49	5.34 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #59	+0.01 #27	LT
Success rate	39% #108	38% #26	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LT scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	6.9 #38	4.5 #124	11.4 #101	4.7 #93	9.1 #25	13.8 #50
MOST allowed	4.1 #42	9.4 #103	13.5 #79	6.2 #90	7.5 #95	13.6 #98

MOST scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	5.5 #78	7.6 #85	13.2 #84	5.9 #71	5.3 #107	11.2 #93
LT allowed	3.6 #36	5.8 #28	9.5 #20	4.8 #48	5.5 #43	10.4 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.