Marshall @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F15 mphgusts 37DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Marshall

5-5 · Power #88

final

Final

App State

4-6 · Power #115

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -3.5

✓ APP W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 29–25 APP

✗ MRSH (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -4.5

CloseMRSH -3.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -4.5

1 → APP

CloseMRSH -3.5

1 pt toward App State

Total

Open54.5

▲ 3

Close57.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -4.5 · closed MRSH -3.5 · moved 1 toward APPmodel MRSH -4

model MRSH -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (208 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (296 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -4.5

CloseMRSH -3.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 3.5-point road favorite at APP, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 26–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.5 against an average line of 4; 59.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Very close	BUFF @ OHIO 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	24–45	L	O61
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Very close	KENN @ JXST 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	26–35	L	O56
Very close	ODU @ ARST 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	40–32	W	O58.5
Very close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Close	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH WWLWW	7-3	70%	3-2	3-3
APP WLWLL	4-6	40%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: MRSH away, as favorite; APP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH OOOOU	7-3	70%	5-5
APP OOUUO	5-4	56%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
APP	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MRSH 5–7 APP APP leads · 12 games since 1977 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	App State 37 @ Marshall 52	MRSH -3.5	MRSH W
Nov 4 2023	Marshall 9 @ App State 31	APP -3	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−1.7 →−4.5▼ 2.8#82

APP−6.4 →−11.8▼ 5.4#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MRSH

Longer bar = better

APP

#52

Offense

◀ MRSH better

#89

#82

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#97

+0.9 #12

Turnovers

◀ MRSH better

−0.5 #111

72 plays #20

Pace

Even

71 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #36	30.4 #112	MRSH
Yards / play	5.67 #69	5.71 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #53	+0.12 #85	MRSH
Success rate	44% #51	44% #105	MRSH

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #85	31.3 #117	APP
Yards / play	5.44 #84	6.15 #117	APP
PPA / play	+0.07 #97	+0.09 #72	MRSH
Success rate	41% #91	38% #20	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	7.2 #39	10.4 #31	17.6 #33	6.2 #57	6.5 #72	12.7 #63
APP allowed	5.7 #79	8.0 #84	13.7 #84	7.8 #120	8.9 #124	16.7 #130

APP scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.9 #70	5.4 #116	11.3 #104	7.4 #38	6.2 #79	13.6 #53
MRSH allowed	6.2 #92	8.1 #89	14.3 #89	7.4 #118	7.3 #98	14.7 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.