Arkansas State @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff33°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arkansas State

5-6 · Power #110

▲ winner

Final

App State

5-6 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

ARST -1.5

✓ APP W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 27–27 APP

✓ ARST (51%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -1.5

CloseARST -1.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAPP -1.5

3 → ARST

CloseARST -1.5

3 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened APP -1.5 · closed ARST -1.5 · moved 3 toward ARSTmodel APP -4.5

model APP -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (163 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (244 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -1.5

CloseARST -1.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 1.5-point road favorite at APP, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 30–29; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 2.3; 56.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	GASO @ ARST 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	24–34	L	U59.5
Very close	GASO @ ODU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	19–47	L	O51.5
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Very close	DEL @ JXST 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	25–38	L	O55.5
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–44	L	O62
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & total	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST WWWWL	7-4	64%	2-3	2-2
APP LWLLW	5-6	45%	2-3	2-2

Venue/role: ARST away, as favorite; APP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST UUUUO	3-8	27%	5-6
APP OUUOU	5-5	50%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 572 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
APP	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−9.7 →−11.6▼ 1.9#110

APP−6.4 →−11.8▼ 5.4#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ARST

Longer bar = better

APP

#94

Offense

Even

#91

#100

Defense

Even

#96

−0.6 #120

Turnovers

APP better ▶

−0.2 #92

75 plays #6

Pace

◀ ARST faster

71 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #95	29.8 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.08 #110	5.76 #86	APP
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	+0.12 #80	APP
Success rate	43% #66	45% #112	ARST

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #85	27.2 #85	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #95	6.12 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.15 #100	Even
Success rate	41% #87	44% #101	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.5 #51	7.1 #89	13.6 #79	2.7 #131	7.5 #49	10.3 #110
APP allowed	5.8 #82	8.5 #94	14.4 #92	7.4 #118	8.1 #111	15.5 #125

APP scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.6 #77	6.1 #108	11.7 #100	7.4 #36	5.9 #90	13.3 #60
ARST allowed	10.0 #132	6.3 #41	16.3 #107	4.1 #36	6.8 #77	10.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.