Georgia Southern vs App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (JLab Birmingham Bowl, 2025)

Mon, Dec 29, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTJLab Birmingham Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff43°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia Southern

6-6 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

App State

5-7 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

GASO -10

✓ GASO W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 34–26 APP

✓ GASO (72%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGASO -2.5

CloseGASO -10

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGASO -2.5

7.5 → GASO

CloseGASO -10

7.5 pts toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open59.5

▼ 1

Close58.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GASO -2.5 · closed GASO -10 · moved 7.5 toward GASOmodel GASO -0.5

model GASO -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGASO -2.5

CloseGASO -10

Total59.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like GASO as a 10-point neutral-site favorite against APP, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: GASO won 29–10; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 39 points stayed under 58.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 4; 33 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BUFF vs LIB 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-4	26–7	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GASO LWWLW	6-6	50%	—	4-1
APP WLLWW	6-6	50%	1-0	3-2

Venue/role: GASO neutral, as favorite; APP neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UUOUU	7-5	58%	6-6
APP UUOUO	6-5	55%	5-7

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 48% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
APP	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

GASO 10–14 APP APP leads · 24 games since 2003 · GASO has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 6 2025	Georgia Southern 25 @ App State 23	APP -4.5	GASO W
Nov 30 2024	App State 20 @ Georgia Southern 29	GASO -2.5	GASO W
Nov 25 2023	Georgia Southern 27 @ App State 55	APP -10	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−5.7 →−11.6▼ 5.9#111

APP−6.4 →−11.9▼ 5.5#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

GASO

Longer bar = better

APP

#49

Offense

◀ GASO better

#89

#133

Defense

APP better ▶

#95

+0.3 #51

Turnovers

◀ GASO better

0.0 #74

69 plays #41

Pace

APP faster ▶

72 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #65	29.8 #104	GASO
Yards / play	5.80 #58	5.74 #87	GASO
PPA / play	+0.18 #34	+0.11 #76	GASO
Success rate	45% #40	45% #111	GASO

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #85	34.2 #130	APP
Yards / play	5.37 #94	6.54 #133	APP
PPA / play	+0.07 #91	+0.26 #133	APP
Success rate	41% #85	49% #134	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	8.8 #16	6.8 #97	15.6 #50	6.0 #63	6.3 #82	12.3 #73
APP allowed	5.6 #78	8.9 #94	14.5 #91	7.3 #118	8.0 #104	15.3 #123

APP scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.4 #80	6.7 #99	12.1 #96	7.3 #34	5.9 #93	13.3 #56
GASO allowed	9.5 #131	9.8 #112	19.3 #132	9.1 #131	5.8 #47	14.8 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.