James Madison @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP First Round, 2025)

Sat, Dec 20, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTCFP First Round · at Oregon

Weather at kickoff44°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

James Madison

12-1 · Power #28

final

Final

Oregon

11-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -20.5

✓ JMU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 15–36 ORE

✓ ORE (93%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -21.5

CloseORE -20.5

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -21.5

1 → JMU

CloseORE -20.5

1 pt toward James Madison

Total

Open51.5

▼ 4

Close47.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -21.5 · closed ORE -20.5 · moved 1 toward JMUmodel ORE -21.5

model ORE -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 49% (96 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (318 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -21.5

CloseORE -20.5

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 20.5-point home favorite against JMU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 51–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 19.4; 50.7 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	UGA vs AUB 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-21	31–13	L	U50
Close	ORE vs WASH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-17.5	49–21	W	O50.5
Close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Loose	ALA vs WIS 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form	-18.5	38–14	W	O45.5
Loose	PSU vs RUTG 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread	-19.5	27–6	W	U40
Loose	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Loose	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Loose	OSU vs MINN 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-23.5	42–3	W	O42.5
Loose	UGA vs GT 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & situation	-17.5	44–42	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU LWLWL	8-5	62%	4-2	1-0
ORE LLWWW	7-5	58%	4-3	6-5

Venue/role: JMU away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OOUOU	6-7	46%	12-1
ORE UUOOU	6-6	50%	11-1

Went over in Q3. Of 548 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	10-0 100%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ORE	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU−2.2 →+9.7▲ 11.9#30

ORE+21.3 →+25.4▲ 4.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

JMU

Longer bar = better

ORE

#28

Offense

ORE better ▶

Defense

Even

#11

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+0.7 #17

70 plays #28

Pace

◀ JMU faster

66 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #11	14.8 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #22	4.16 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #45	−0.04 #15	ORE
Success rate	46% #34	37% #17	Even

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	38.2 #9	15.8 #10	Even
Yards / play	7.08 #8	4.05 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #3	−0.08 #5	Even
Success rate	51% #6	30% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	7.4 #30	9.8 #37	17.2 #34	9.4 #8	10.7 #3	20.1 #5
ORE allowed	2.3 #4	3.3 #4	5.5 #4	2.0 #6	6.8 #71	8.8 #22

ORE scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.8 #15	12.9 #3	21.7 #5	10.0 #5	5.4 #102	15.4 #29
JMU allowed	2.5 #10	8.8 #92	11.3 #47	2.2 #7	2.3 #2	4.5 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.