Washington State vs Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 2025)

Mon, Dec 22, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTFamous Idaho Potato Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

6-6 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

6-6 · Power #86

final

Closing spread

USU -1.5

✓ WSU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 26–27 USU

✗ USU (50%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSU -1.5

CloseUSU -1.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -1.5

3 → USU

CloseUSU -1.5

3 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -1.5 · closed USU -1.5 · moved 3 toward USUmodel WSU -5.5

model WSU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 48% (55 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (254 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSU -1.5

CloseUSU -1.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against WSU, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WSU won 34–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.5 against an average line of 3.1; 53.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GASO vs OHIO 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	21–41	L	O48.5
Very close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	ARST vs NIU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	19–21	L	U53.75
Close	USU vs GAST 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	22–45	L	O57.75
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	TTU vs CAL 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–14	W	U55.5
Close	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3	30–27	P	O43
Close	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3	27–35	L	O49
Close	ODU vs WKU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-4	35–38	L	O48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WSU WLWWW	8-4	67%	—	5-2
USU LWWWW	10-2	83%	—	4-1

Venue/role: WSU neutral, as underdog; USU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU UUUUU	3-9	25%	6-6
USU UOUUU	5-7	42%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 646 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
USU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WSU 4–3 USU WSU leads · 7 games since 1949 · USU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Utah State 28 @ Washington State 49	WSU -20.5	WSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU−2.0 →+0.8▲ 2.8#64

USU−10.4 →−3.9▲ 6.5#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

WSU

Longer bar = better

USU

#108

Offense

USU better ▶

#41

#37

Defense

◀ WSU better

#89

−0.7 #120

Turnovers

USU better ▶

+0.3 #42

63 plays #107

Pace

USU faster ▶

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Even matchup

	WSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #112	28.3 #91	USU
Yards / play	4.96 #120	5.79 #89	USU
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.15 #90	USU
Success rate	41% #88	43% #86	Even

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #35	20.2 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.35 #25	5.00 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #33	+0.01 #27	Even
Success rate	42% #72	42% #64	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	3.9 #116	9.5 #48	13.4 #78	3.6 #116	4.6 #121	8.2 #129
USU allowed	5.3 #70	10.3 #120	15.6 #103	5.3 #67	6.9 #75	12.2 #67

USU scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	8.7 #18	9.2 #55	17.8 #26	7.6 #30	6.1 #86	13.7 #48
WSU allowed	4.0 #39	5.7 #26	9.7 #22	3.3 #21	7.2 #84	10.5 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.