California @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl, 2025)

Wed, Dec 24, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTSheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl · at Hawai'i

Weather at kickoff77°F12 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

California

7-5 · Power #76

final

Final

Hawai'i

8-4 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

HAW -1.5

✓ HAW W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 24–25 HAW

✓ HAW (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCAL -1.5

CloseHAW -1.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -1.5

3 → HAW

CloseHAW -1.5

3 pts toward Hawai'i

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -1.5 · closed HAW -1.5 · moved 3 toward HAWmodel HAW -0.5

model HAW -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (201 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (257 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCAL -1.5

CloseHAW -1.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 1.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 35–31; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 1.9; 55.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU vs FRES 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	42–18	W	O51.5
Close	BC vs SYR 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-3	37–31	W	O52
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & total	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Close	WMU vs OHIO 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	17–13	W	U47
Close	GAST vs CCU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-0.5	27–48	L	O53
Close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2	25–24	L	U50
Close	GASO vs MRSH 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-1	24–23	P	U58
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & total	-3	24–20	W	U50.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LLWLW	5-7	42%	3-3	4-3
HAW WLWLW	8-4	67%	6-1	3-1

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; HAW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OUOUO	6-6	50%	7-5
HAW UOUUU	4-8	33%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 647 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
HAW	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+3.8 →−2.9▼ 6.7#77

HAW−11.4 →−6.0▲ 5.4#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CAL

Longer bar = better

HAW

#100

Offense

HAW better ▶

#78

#71

Defense

Even

#64

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #99

69 plays #49

Pace

HAW faster ▶

70 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: HAW defense

	CAL off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #88	23.5 #59	HAW
Yards / play	5.06 #115	5.65 #77	HAW
PPA / play	+0.06 #94	+0.09 #66	HAW
Success rate	39% #104	40% #54	HAW

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #61	26.5 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.62 #77	5.53 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	+0.11 #76	Even
Success rate	40% #95	42% #65	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.3 #60	6.9 #95	13.2 #84	4.6 #96	6.0 #90	10.6 #100
HAW allowed	5.3 #70	6.8 #52	12.1 #62	4.2 #37	7.3 #84	11.4 #57

HAW scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	6.9 #36	8.3 #72	15.3 #57	5.8 #70	7.4 #53	13.3 #55
CAL allowed	5.2 #63	6.7 #48	11.8 #53	5.1 #58	8.1 #109	13.2 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.